TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump designate ANTIFA a terrorist organization by September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$254,937
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$204,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,937 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c3…5d8ebacked No1c23,892$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.255935.6%21 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5783…ea00backed No1c22,635$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c1…e4f0backed No0c15,144$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No0c14,196$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.124938.8%19 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No1c13,143$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.138632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes9c12,603$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,436.5418425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81a6…762ebacked No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee8…523bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09a3…ab99backed Yes11c7,064$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,307450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+645.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb194…1063backed No0c7,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-64.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes16c4,716$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,971.194139%16 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+69.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes9c4,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,64011936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No37c3,655$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.4199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes20c2,650$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125.7341238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes79c2,558$2,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.063560%21 W · 14 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x766e…699fbacked No15c2,486$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.51520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No8c2,109$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.3833313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…6224backed Yes13c2,103$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.46425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+97.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes11c2,000$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7755942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed No17c1,813$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.272250%11 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes10c1,600$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4401625%4 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1659…cda7backed No7c1,476$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes11c1,443$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.411729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+63.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes11c1,438$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.7832029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes15c1,289$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.2835519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f7a…d7ccbacked Yes6c1,099$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.441060%6 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+177.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No22c1,090$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.84942.9%21 W · 28 L+12.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+218.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xef43…7b62backed Yes14c1,066$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.83296.9%2 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-58.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed Yes9c1,066$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.44652.2%24 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+41.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes69c977.16$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.4310330.1%31 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed Yes73c900.3$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.621643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ba1…057cbacked No2c894.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed No63c837.97$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.631266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes9c807$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.3714125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x470c…2af9backed No6c771$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3c0…0403backed Yes10c750$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7592…94d2backed No22c744.67$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes30c694.28$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.5232626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No22c635.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9211121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x50bc…78c2backed Yes12c600.1$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.092913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No80c575.82$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.783969.2%27 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked No7c566.11$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.936838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes8c538.76$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.371466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce62…1f33backed Yes12c499.97$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes8c478$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.765343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked No5c446.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No25c435.72$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed Yes9c400$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3667331.5%23 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc082…41fcbacked Yes11c376.2$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0b…58dabacked Yes11c376.2$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Yes78c373.23$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.111070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+104.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbfb…9762backed No73c333$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09e4…3b7dbacked No17c331.78$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes59c331.09$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.234949%24 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e53…c4f2backed Yes18c325.71$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.54540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+65.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Yes5c300$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2852857.1%16 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+86.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a06…41c9backed No14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes10c293.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.4211646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd30a…25e9backed No18c271.87$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x990c…5ccfbacked Yes9c270.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.63520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+112.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed Yes9c253.91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.21137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes11c250$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.58332.5%27 W · 56 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes8c250$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2302030%6 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes8c249.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.9812643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes53c248.5$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.954957.1%28 W · 21 L+8.3wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+47.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x261a…2989backed No22c245.45$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa9e…70bcbacked No44c226.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79e7…f41fbacked Yes9c226$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.663917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc277…9098backed Yes9c222.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed Yes14c220$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.24843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes71c210$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-84.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes8c208.96$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.243122.6%7 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes18c202$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.058749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes9c200$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1828823.9%21 W · 67 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+51.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3d1…94b0backed No62c191.21$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x023c…bdafbacked Yes10c183$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+166.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc4e…f04abacked No18c167.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes8c154.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.593253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b89…69ddbacked Yes13c153.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+156.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8888…5b57backed No50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes30c148.5$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.953663.9%23 W · 13 L+7.0wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+75.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x76be…6718backed Yes77c140$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.6wins-0.45per pick58cpaid-83.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No31c131.33$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5114935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0774…da5dbacked No18c130$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.93112.9%4 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5ca…4a6cbacked Yes8c125$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+525%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9620…4260backed No16c122.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e27…2e9bbacked Yes9c120$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x398d…9b0fbacked Yes9c118.76$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31df…68d1backed No17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked No51c110$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1614…ec02backed Yes16c106.25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.251040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+41.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes75c101.08$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2713341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…01febacked Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38d6…d10abacked No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192450%12 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb26d…0fa3backed Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick12cpaid+332.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x708d…ea78backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b8…3dc2backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e78…b11cbacked Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes79c99.55$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2512839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.