World Politics · resolved market
Trudeau out in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e35c729149e688593c4dba07721105f331ecbce33a52ccac887ccb028c9f8af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $432,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $382,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $432,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x748e…a9d5backed Yes | 20c | 35,748$7,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,160.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 77c | 12,895$9,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,003.89 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 80c | 11,796$9,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,412.04 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 9c | 10,977$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.46 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 79c | 9,253$7,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,905.53 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5997…850abacked Yes | 12c | 8,352$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 8c | 7,941$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.92 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 0c | 7,334$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 3c | 7,030$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.9 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 1c | 6,832$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…52d7backed Yes | 30c | 6,214$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,876.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c2…1478backed Yes | 6c | 6,209$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e41…f050backed Yes | 30c | 6,178$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 7c | 6,027$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.28 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…1f58backed Yes | 2c | 5,790$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191c…36efbacked Yes | 1c | 5,751$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 67c | 5,660$3,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.87 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 21c | 5,601$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.4 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 5,365$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.3 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 10c | 4,899$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.79 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d38…2122backed Yes | 2c | 4,575$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1a…faaebacked Yes | 10c | 4,116$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 1c | 3,827$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes | 8c | 3,781$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 3,421$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e53…cc49backed Yes | 2c | 3,161$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Yes | 12c | 2,588$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a9…f991backed Yes | 6c | 2,405$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…9003backed Yes | 2c | 2,363$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaab…6f9ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,981$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 68c | 1,835$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…d4e5backed Yes | 6c | 1,746$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 27c | 1,677$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes | 20c | 1,520$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d51…36b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,411$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…6788backed Yes | 1c | 1,401$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 6c | 1,369$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 21c | 1,346$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.27 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c56…2845backed Yes | 25c | 1,222$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yes | 37c | 1,197$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.97 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf223…7b5fbacked No | 79c | 1,148$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbf…b0b3backed Yes | 3c | 1,101$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,093$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.42 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28eb…516abacked Yes | 12c | 1,078$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed2…d8eabacked Yes | 5c | 1,061$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 1,049$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…fbdcbacked No | 78c | 1,046$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.81 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 78c | 1,000$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 3c | 991.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…793cbacked Yes | 2c | 989.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 7c | 978.7$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739b…0b66backed No | 79c | 900$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 68c | 888$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.61 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…0312backed Yes | 12c | 885.35$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…41f9backed Yes | 8c | 858.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 32c | 853.93$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 7c | 849.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…9a35backed Yes | 2c | 828.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed Yes | 18c | 769.4$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 28c | 750$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…96b1backed Yes | 4c | 743.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…b2d5backed Yes | 28c | 715.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4508…15afbacked Yes | 7c | 684.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…cddabacked Yes | 6c | 655.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…fe85backed Yes | 9c | 646.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…4cdcbacked Yes | 9c | 646$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab1…d307backed Yes | 21c | 617.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…7143backed Yes | 28c | 602.81$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…d472backed Yes | 21c | 600$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9313…9140backed Yes | 34c | 588.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 8c | 560$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 50c | 555$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 6c | 554.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc73…8c2ebacked Yes | 16c | 548.72$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…6f4fbacked Yes | 20c | 530$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…94d1backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -89%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…22bfbacked Yes | 20c | 499.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbf…d834backed Yes | 20c | 498.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…a2e6backed Yes | 21c | 489.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 10c | 480.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77af…c3efbacked No | 78c | 436.34$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…bbafbacked No | 79c | 434.62$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 66c | 410$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.37 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 45c | 409.64$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.62 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed No | 70c | 400$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…aaf2backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Yes | 8c | 387$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 33c | 384.84$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 5c | 365.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 32cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…31b9backed Yes | 5c | 359$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…9b47backed No | 73c | 357.01$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…5ec4backed No | 77c | 352.75$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 351.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 3c | 345$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.