Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc295b3779bd5923f7a7179b4e422a02760a9a43117f536465b1c05dbb12b93d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,935,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,782,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,935,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 376 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96fd…8c81backed Yes | 13c | 97,909$12,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,829.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef8d…5ca3backed Yes | 9c | 50,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…1015backed Yes | 6c | 43,418$2,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,672.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 38,309$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131.79 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…1e17backed Yes | 6c | 29,261$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 27,762$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.5 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…0b8fbacked Yes | 9c | 24,750$2,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,248.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 3c | 24,022$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.33 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 22,302$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.7 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 7c | 21,092$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.03 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 7c | 19,500$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd5…8737backed Yes | 13c | 17,993$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 5c | 15,766$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.51 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 7c | 13,000$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f5…b7e4backed Yes | 8c | 12,137$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…975dbacked Yes | 10c | 11,833$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c9…7afcbacked Yes | 10c | 11,324$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 3c | 11,200$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.51 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…059fbacked Yes | 13c | 10,948$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…bad9backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c3…97bfbacked Yes | 7c | 10,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…387ebacked Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbb…9e7cbacked Yes | 11c | 9,679$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…9ddcbacked Yes | 12c | 9,500$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 10c | 9,444$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Yes | 11c | 9,184$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5241…04cebacked Yes | 11c | 9,052$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 2c | 8,887$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.97 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 8,881$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.47 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f65…7acdbacked Yes | 17c | 8,446$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 6c | 8,385$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…41aebacked Yes | 4c | 8,269$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…8330backed Yes | 3c | 7,535$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 9c | 7,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe28b…be62backed Yes | 10c | 7,474$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…e1abbacked Yes | 8c | 7,280$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…54a2backed Yes | 7c | 6,683$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…9a15backed Yes | 17c | 6,669$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 7c | 6,493$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.66 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Yes | 9c | 6,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 14c | 6,020$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes | 28c | 6,009$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ed…6609backed Yes | 7c | 6,008$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fc…a57fbacked Yes | 13c | 5,906$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 4c | 5,851$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.17 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Yes | 14c | 5,749$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 5,604$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.52 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9190…9509backed Yes | 9c | 5,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6416…f1c5backed Yes | 3c | 5,411$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75a…71aabacked Yes | 19c | 5,382$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 14c | 5,333$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.62 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…0179backed Yes | 8c | 5,326$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 6c | 5,300$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 19c | 5,110$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…f1a4backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.76 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa670…5c49backed Yes | 1c | 4,684$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 3c | 4,682$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.27 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 5c | 4,554$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e3…0272backed Yes | 10c | 4,500$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…0abbbacked Yes | 5c | 4,042$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…8266backed Yes | 12c | 3,845$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 78c | 3,673$2,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 10c | 3,618$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.07 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…9c3bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,543$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…4c2bbacked Yes | 8c | 3,490$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 6c | 3,239$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.51 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e9…7c58backed Yes | 3c | 3,065$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17c…dd51backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…7024backed Yes | 17c | 2,996$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 7c | 2,951$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.81 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,941$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.88 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…04c5backed Yes | 6c | 2,845$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,711$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58f…af24backed Yes | 6c | 2,711$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 17c | 2,705$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.74 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…603bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,553$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 9c | 2,507$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.94 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed Yes | 11c | 2,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,423$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.02 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2896…2facbacked Yes | 8c | 2,332$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe275…f1eebacked Yes | 11c | 2,271$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…dd1dbacked Yes | 17c | 2,258$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 8c | 2,235$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.32 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 15c | 2,231$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,200$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b2…a51abacked Yes | 7c | 2,173$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4b…d17ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,119$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 2,038$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,001$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 6c | 1,915$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…8259backed Yes | 5c | 1,900$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,885$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…cfe1backed Yes | 7c | 1,878$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 1,800$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 26c | 1,776$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.5 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,751$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.