TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$555,412
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$354,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $555,412 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4266…0e08backed Yes11c68,373$7,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,545.621833.3%6 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes4c20,087$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.0818214.8%27 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed Yes4c19,693$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.421020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes4c18,208$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.914221.4%9 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes5c17,253$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.5816612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1be8…de7ebacked Yes3c15,029$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-81.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes11c13,679$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.681957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+112.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes31c11,034$3,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,438.919334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff68…846cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c9,454$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.176883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb3…641fbacked Yes7c8,837$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.3470%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes2c7,754$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.57166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-83.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x769c…3d88backed Yes6c6,123$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3551020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x687c…3dfabacked Yes4c5,837$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes48c5,242$2,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,504.6843243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes6c5,047$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.528434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c5,011$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.181,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes4c5,000$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2057420.3%15 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes1c4,920$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6723225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe61…847abacked Yes13c4,823$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6421225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x383a…c380backed Yes5c4,679$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-54.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe876…7346backed Yes5c4,580$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffc3…5d07backed Yes4c4,449$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde54…444dbacked Yes1c3,914$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.651225%3 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+183%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3964…a3a0backed Yes6c3,874$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34f9…e170backed Yes8c3,748$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.841225%3 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6842…3eb4backed Yes5c3,100$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes5c3,071$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.2615026%39 W · 111 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x733c…d092backed Yes27c3,050$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0546…cce5backed Yes6c2,886$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes7c2,764$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.7312129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes2c2,711$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.043724.3%9 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes7c2,589$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17011331%35 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes4c2,577$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes27c2,564$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69231534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9792…9212backed Yes3c2,491$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes3c2,353$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes7c2,270$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.713020%6 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes2c2,257$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.026737.3%25 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf00…0704backed Yes45c2,204$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.752339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3263…a3b7backed Yes5c2,058$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e2b…31f8backed Yes3c2,000$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…7663backed Yes7c1,990$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6300…7b4fbacked Yes4c1,969$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x720f…0aabbacked Yes6c1,930$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120150%0 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbdd…18fbbacked Yes5c1,882$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7166…c32bbacked Yes9c1,854$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x451b…1cc6backed Yes2c1,818$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b23…315bbacked Yes4c1,722$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes5c1,706$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1613268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2042…30e8backed Yes7c1,701$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3240…5d25backed Yes4c1,688$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.511546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes7c1,611$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9912029.2%35 W · 85 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes5c1,544$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.115614.3%8 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes7c1,520$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.327936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes2c1,519$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.381344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf0…da21backed Yes5c1,508$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.87714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-78%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd2…2b4dbacked Yes6c1,453$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc8…19d4backed Yes5c1,415$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-70.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…b7bfbacked Yes6c1,384$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes31c1,341$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.147828.2%22 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes6c1,333$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.658123.5%19 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c65…b9eebacked Yes43c1,261$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.1234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-86.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x447d…65a5backed Yes8c1,245$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b30…84ccbacked Yes8c1,203$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.83933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0861…c24cbacked Yes8c1,128$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.611010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-78.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d9…7ffebacked Yes6c1,116$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x766b…e4ffbacked Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5cb…b3f8backed Yes9c1,110$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Yes9c1,108$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.390%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07ca…f2b6backed Yes11c1,106$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125850%4 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6a4…f692backed Yes6c1,101$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.222334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes10c1,060$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.063432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6228…96f3backed Yes9c1,043$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.94540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48cd…113dbacked Yes5c1,041$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd0…0f6abacked Yes2c999.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20270%0 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1850…58b7backed Yes3c996.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd399…d13ebacked Yes5c965.11$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.911650%8 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fb0…02bfbacked No80c957.79$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b9…e6d3backed Yes5c899.16$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.59540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes5c885$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5411222.3%25 W · 87 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bff…0ad0backed Yes2c883.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-64.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes5c850.77$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.014766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes35c820.2$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.9730233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes15c820.13$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.159035.6%32 W · 58 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes5c795.33$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.855630.4%17 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes31c751.83$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2358036.3%29 W · 51 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1b8…e056backed Yes10c750.56$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-50.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e2…3e8abacked Yes3c734.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes6c721.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.525121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes9c711.82$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9988448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ec…dd3dbacked Yes4c704.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc14c…ec48backed Yes4c703.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes32c700$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22524736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d1…8f6ebacked Yes3c678.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c52…22fabacked Yes7c646.93$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes10c638$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.166536.9%24 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Yes6c623.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405438.9%21 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes17c613.67$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.712332.5%40 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08e5…c5e4backed Yes4c609.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.