World Politics · resolved market
Will Evelyn Matthei win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f2c9487402a02e38365607df734ed6928710e4d1b42018052b79b71eeae64d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $344,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $266,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $344,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 1c | 100,000$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.46 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…8a76backed Yes | 0c | 48,499$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 0c | 39,517$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…8dfdbacked Yes | 2c | 28,828$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,542$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9de…5c42backed Yes | 1c | 10,080$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf925…92efbacked Yes | 1c | 5,276$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa56…f232backed Yes | 4c | 5,007$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…db32backed Yes | 2c | 4,753$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,574$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 3,462$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 3,456$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,375$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,487$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6e…9022backed Yes | 1c | 1,442$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02b…19bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,410$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 1c | 1,407$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9f…81c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,109$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…534ebacked Yes | 1c | 978$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 915$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked Yes | 4c | 774$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 3c | 650$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 499$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 405.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 8c | 185$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Evelyn Matthei win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?this page
- Will Eduardo Artés win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Franco Parisi win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Yes won
- Will Johannes Kaiser win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Marco Enríquez-Ominami win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Michelle Bachelet win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.