World Politics · resolved market
Will Johannes Kaiser win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12a561b723e051783fb5f5a67fbc9764986ae2996ca7b2ebcef0dc2d9b222fec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $435,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $270,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $435,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa56…f232backed Yes | 1c | 55,123$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.36 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…b9eebacked Yes | 1c | 43,792$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.79 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 1c | 31,572$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.71 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 1c | 29,387$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.98 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…eac8backed Yes | 3c | 22,429$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 13,492$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.07 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…c32bbacked Yes | 1c | 13,450$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 9,883$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4b…ae15backed Yes | 1c | 9,692$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…9bf9backed Yes | 3c | 9,171$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 8,293$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed Yes | 1c | 7,955$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…6ec6backed Yes | 1c | 7,793$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…1ba1backed Yes | 3c | 7,780$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…caa9backed Yes | 1c | 5,809$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 2c | 5,698$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf925…92efbacked Yes | 2c | 5,626$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 5,239$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…3d88backed Yes | 3c | 5,001$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…255abacked Yes | 3c | 4,668$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc3…5d07backed Yes | 2c | 4,342$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534c…37edbacked Yes | 2c | 3,774$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d03…bc42backed Yes | 1c | 3,527$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3263…a3b7backed Yes | 3c | 3,199$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,163$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,791$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 1c | 2,537$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…594ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,398$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,353$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 2,165$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…c380backed Yes | 2c | 2,137$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x739f…ee9fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,632$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…61c8backed Yes | 6c | 1,630$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c0…5f65backed Yes | 1c | 1,623$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…0ad0backed Yes | 2c | 1,592$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…3feabacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Yes | 2c | 1,420$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d7…e447backed Yes | 4c | 1,379$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…edd5backed Yes | 3c | 1,346$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,278$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf6…bd53backed Yes | 2c | 1,105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…4184backed Yes | 1c | 1,044$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…583cbacked Yes | 2c | 843.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6e…9022backed Yes | 3c | 740.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…534ebacked Yes | 2c | 706.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 2c | 660$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3050…70c4backed Yes | 3c | 646.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…84ccbacked Yes | 3c | 579.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 2c | 464.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1740…3a97backed Yes | 4c | 384.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Johannes Kaiser win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?this page
- Will Eduardo Artés win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Evelyn Matthei win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Franco Parisi win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Yes won
- Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Marco Enríquez-Ominami win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Michelle Bachelet win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.