TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$828,739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$809,218

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $828,739 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd691…1a95backed Mavericks0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick24cpaid-29.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f34…eeb4backed Mavericks0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…88cabacked Mavericks0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-38.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Mavericks16c70,000$10,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,85038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Mavericks20c38,705$7,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,838.51,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Mavericks24c33,240$7,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,900.5435235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Mavericks22c24,375$5,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,309.9336148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Thunder77c23,458$18,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,395.2920055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Thunder75c17,633$13,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,408.1619351.3%99 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Mavericks22c16,883$3,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,793.8785742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d6…aa44backed Mavericks23c15,000$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4505815.5%9 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Mavericks25c14,139$3,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,547.7871052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Thunder76c12,433$9,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,983.848744.8%39 W · 48 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Thunder75c11,245$8,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,811.211,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder75c10,300$7,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,574.9666853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe42e…8d89backed Mavericks23c9,516$2,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,235.335149%25 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Mavericks25c8,082$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.5469852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Mavericks10c7,869$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.1481529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6775…17efbacked Mavericks18c6,188$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1002650%13 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Mavericks24c6,088$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.2761835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Mavericks0c5,983$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.288820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Thunder76c5,831$4,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.8412843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Mavericks23c5,266$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.5333743.6%147 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks10c5,147$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.118,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Thunder76c5,000$3,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.3231347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Thunder74c4,033$2,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.8144459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Mavericks25c3,641$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.752,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Mavericks0c3,471$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.571,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Thunder73c3,000$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81018142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Mavericks24c2,996$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71943051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Mavericks25c2,974$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.995049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Mavericks19c2,876$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.4347535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Mavericks14c2,693$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.5747144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Mavericks13c2,578$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.6920034%68 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Thunder73c2,413$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.2573647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Thunder74c2,177$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.2984150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Mavericks25c2,151$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.6733735.3%119 W · 218 L+1.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc4f…1c0bbacked Mavericks24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Mavericks24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006435.9%23 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Mavericks22c2,050$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4511,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Thunder76c2,020$1,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.044553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Thunder75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50075347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Thunder73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.981,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Mavericks1c1,653$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.041,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Mavericks25c1,363$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.7517250%86 W · 86 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Mavericks25c1,259$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.2412160.3%73 W · 48 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Mavericks23c1,043$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.9820253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Mavericks25c1,006$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2556145.9%28 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Mavericks1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Mavericks16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf0…251cbacked Mavericks25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507339.7%29 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb37d…b5b3backed Thunder74c999.99$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-9.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Mavericks26c933.36$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.6430053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Mavericks26c875$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.59855.1%54 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd054…11aebacked Mavericks23c869.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Thunder76c825.26$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.7727547.6%131 W · 144 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder74c823.25$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.059,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc02…e0d4backed Mavericks19c822.47$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.2715238.8%59 W · 93 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Thunder76c781$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.4494951.3%487 W · 462 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Mavericks16c760$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.159743.6%260 W · 337 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Mavericks24c749.97$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.9924835.1%87 W · 161 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks25c739.72$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.463,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b8…1193backed Mavericks30c665.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7934942.7%149 W · 200 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Mavericks25c659.14$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7924634.1%84 W · 162 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed Thunder77c649.35$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.352544%11 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-34.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e63…1cedbacked Mavericks21c576.1$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12024323.9%58 W · 185 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Mavericks4c571$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.732,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Mavericks26c555.97$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5569929.8%208 W · 491 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661e…a52cbacked Thunder75c533.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x006f…b3efbacked Thunder77c519.48$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.481030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-56.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Mavericks7c508.68$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7126949.1%132 W · 137 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Thunder75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12544337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Mavericks24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12070153.5%375 W · 326 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Mavericks26c500$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.595641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Mavericks26c459.95$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5952432.6%171 W · 353 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Thunder77c454.55$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.553259.4%19 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdea…6951backed Mavericks9c451.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020434.8%71 W · 133 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ea1…56f2backed Mavericks26c445.98$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9659131.1%184 W · 407 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec3…9766backed Mavericks23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006659.1%39 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Mavericks24c426.25$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1955346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Thunder75c424.79$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.241848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Thunder66c420.3$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.91,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Mavericks5c418.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207529.3%22 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58bc…a883backed Mavericks24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Mavericks24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016740.1%67 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Thunder77c406$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3866153.3%352 W · 309 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb99a…cfb2backed Thunder75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002268.2%15 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Mavericks25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015228.3%43 W · 109 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a2…1aabbacked Mavericks5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202020%4 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Mavericks25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10049142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Mavericks25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025236.9%93 W · 159 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x536d…c925backed Thunder77c389.61$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34c7…66a3backed Thunder77c376.13$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.51771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Mavericks26c372.16$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7625336.8%93 W · 160 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a14…1100backed Thunder74c343.54$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.323721.6%8 W · 29 L-5.5wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-47.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mavericks6c323.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.451,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Thunder75c305$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2557760.5%349 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Thunder75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7540947.7%195 W · 214 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x520a…ab8abacked Mavericks25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7551037.5%191 W · 319 L+1.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Mavericks23c299.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6972647.7%346 W · 380 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.