NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07d05fa371aa2feb169c0097b6cb4205709b3bebe6d7328988af3469b4e1757d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 4,310$2,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,155.05 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 50c | 2,666$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.69 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 48c | 1,563$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 52c | 1,563$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 1,022$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Over | 49c | 919.53$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.57 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 344.74$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.37 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda28…2992backed Over | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 266.61$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.02 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…d081backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 165.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 144.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Over | 51c | 110.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…94e3backed Under | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Over | 51c | 100.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…ac75backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf939…2e92backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e8…1e83backed Under | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…fd12backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab2…8029backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf13…a49cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…a2c0backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Mavericks won
- Thunder vs. MavericksThunder won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.