TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Pelicans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Celticsof Celtics, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,598,354
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,627,156

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,598,354 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 466 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Celtics63c448,682$282,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166,012.2215443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5afb…4511backed Pelicans37c435,226$161,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,033.565540%22 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8628…6f0bbacked Celtics47c187,662$87,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,886.553026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Pelicans51c86,800$44,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,346.0271052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2131…aaf2backed Celtics53c86,280$45,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,573.531070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+46.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea34…0a92backed Celtics55c79,366$43,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,429.686654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Pelicans42c38,826$16,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,408.2735235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Pelicans36c37,637$13,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,675.638843.2%38 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Pelicans53c35,275$18,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,525.3969852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Celtics51c33,421$17,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,292.736148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Pelicans39c29,204$11,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,295.748543.5%37 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Pelicans42c26,007$10,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,822.8947448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Celtics46c26,007$11,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,161.41,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe42e…8d89backed Celtics50c21,163$10,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,613.725149%25 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Celtics51c20,566$10,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,085.4320352.2%106 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Pelicans57c20,012$11,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,389.1434645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Pelicans53c20,000$10,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,6001,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x591b…807cbacked Pelicans57c20,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,4001136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Pelicans52c20,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,40016942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ae…0e0ebacked Celtics43c20,000$8,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,399.991266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Pelicans57c20,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,399.8951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Celtics55c18,212$10,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,195.5412740.2%51 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c81…e258backed Celtics53c17,007$9,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,993.351872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+45.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Celtics60c15,568$9,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,22420248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Pelicans54c15,549$8,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,370.7630053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd79…fe86backed Celtics50c15,300$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,650475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.46per pick28cpaid+1,010.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99a0…96d2backed Pelicans50c15,300$7,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,650333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Pelicans49c14,955$7,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,328.1770147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Pelicans54c13,000$7,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0206245.2%28 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf02…4fdcbacked Pelicans41c12,255$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Celtics51c11,761$5,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,806.1885742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked Celtics79c11,300$8,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,348.611650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Celtics56c11,145$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,945.26155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Pelicans53c11,142$5,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,907.851,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Pelicans40c11,137$4,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,501.047142.3%30 W · 41 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Pelicans48c10,927$5,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,204.1512160.3%73 W · 48 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Pelicans42c10,699$4,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,496.842,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pelicans37c8,570$3,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,166.7381529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52d2…2280backed Celtics63c8,162$5,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,020.07728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick63cpaid-56.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Celtics62c7,889$4,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,020.5314856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Pelicans39c7,500$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9256152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Pelicans51c7,384$3,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,729.482,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Pelicans29c7,105$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,029.355246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pelicans41c6,831$2,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,801.872,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Pelicans46c6,448$2,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,966.0859646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Pelicans41c6,069$2,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,497.5666250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Pelicans50c5,750$2,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,852.510236.3%37 W · 65 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed Pelicans53c5,652$2,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,995.581861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+24.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Celtics44c5,599$2,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,136.619351.3%99 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Pelicans37c5,007$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.424553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Celtics62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9003663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Pelicans17c4,779$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.2519249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans12c4,345$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.038,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Pelicans53c4,320$2,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,289.692753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed Pelicans53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-77.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Pelicans52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,079.9680146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d405backed Pelicans39c3,813$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.931931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Pelicans13c3,763$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.251,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Pelicans35c3,420$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18220034%68 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x596e…7b82backed Pelicans46c3,407$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.211656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Celtics52c3,405$1,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.4744459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pelicans16c3,363$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.473,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Pelicans47c3,265$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.6275347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Pelicans21c3,248$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.8247535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Celtics63c3,217$2,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.3961851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Pelicans47c3,198$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50347048.5%228 W · 242 L-18.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pelicans53c3,073$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.322,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Pelicans39c3,042$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.362138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Pelicans28c2,907$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.811,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans47c2,624$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.56,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Pelicans38c2,495$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.8827848.9%136 W · 142 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Pelicans47c2,404$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.0941848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe766…404dbacked Pelicans48c2,200$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0566746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Pelicans41c2,181$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.615656.4%88 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Pelicans46c2,020$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.247751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Pelicans50c2,017$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.3554747.5%260 W · 287 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Celtics50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00017637.5%66 W · 110 L-16.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Pelicans55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10017250%86 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bff…6f0cbacked Pelicans52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0402540%10 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-30.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Celtics63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74016844%74 W · 94 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Pelicans55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1009851%50 W · 48 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e58…f73bbacked Pelicans54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0805740.4%23 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20b9…9110backed Celtics73c2,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53013950.4%70 W · 69 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid+9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Celtics44c1,920$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.2795049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa962…6c41backed Pelicans55c1,800$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+61.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaef9…72b5backed Celtics46c1,800$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Pelicans51c1,568$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.215945.9%73 W · 86 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85ec…57d6backed Celtics43c1,493$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.02425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18b6…7b4fbacked Pelicans58c1,492$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.5850%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pelicans26c1,419$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.965,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Pelicans52c1,400$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72812143%52 W · 69 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Celtics52c1,398$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.1214358.7%84 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Pelicans36c1,396$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.5643051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Celtics49c1,377$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.2776249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d4…ad20backed Pelicans46c1,304$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006448.4%31 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pelicans31c1,278$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.172,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Pelicans42c1,225$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.44540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Pelicans39c1,185$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46268542.6%292 W · 393 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Pelicans39c1,100$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4294035%14 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Celtics46c1,100$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59423644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.