NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2f683e785cef90d73fb5fc8c279e46712fddd36b35446fccb4b3fb7cf72ce74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Under | 49c | 11,955$5,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,096.99 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 51c | 9,486$4,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,850.29 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 51c | 8,484$4,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,298.54 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 4,568$2,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,263.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 48c | 3,000$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 51c | 1,232$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.32 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Over | 51c | 1,157$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 50c | 1,016$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Under | 51c | 937$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.13 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 51c | 843$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.48 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c19…3ec0backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0c4abacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 52c | 537.17$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.87 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 390.2$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 49c | 345.39$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.15 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…6b8abacked Over | 50c | 332.68$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.34 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -16.2wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 286.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.27 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…3b65backed Under | 51c | 280.39$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69d…1262backed Over | 48c | 165.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…3363backed Under | 53c | 126.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -61%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f05…8937backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 470 | 28.1%132 W · 338 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 49c | 82.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 53c | 66.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…0f52backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e7…cdc7backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907f…ae52backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…5eefbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201f…edd1backed Over | 51c | 31.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5this page
- Celtics vs. PelicansCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.