TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Rainbow FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$236,005
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$230,122

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,005 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes0c4,239$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.99150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c4,100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.61424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c9…6495backed Yes1c3,449$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.160%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cba…b43fbacked Yes1c3,082$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,071$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.967663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb26c…5a58backed Yes5c2,703$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9230…1f7bbacked Yes28c2,568$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2449…4978backed Yes28c2,499$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe933…5aefbacked Yes28c2,446$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe384…dc90backed Yes26c2,414$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95a8…c599backed Yes28c2,382$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9337…d5ddbacked Yes28c1,774$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+72.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2503…7bebbacked Yes28c1,722$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick21cpaid+284.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c4…a880backed Yes26c1,689$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c95…f83fbacked Yes27c1,673$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…55ccbacked Yes23c1,669$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…4eddbacked Yes27c1,654$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x741c…8c63backed Yes27c1,652$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01ea…c7fabacked Yes27c1,617$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x006d…8b81backed Yes26c1,613$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bce…9c27backed Yes28c1,601$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+72.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8109…e7d2backed Yes26c1,583$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf23a…dad3backed Yes26c1,579$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd932…6c06backed Yes24c1,572$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b7…b1f9backed Yes26c1,568$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6b…a175backed Yes26c1,564$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ccf…f427backed Yes27c1,561$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc21d…f881backed Yes24c1,552$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe744…e1c6backed Yes27c1,550$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81a…888cbacked Yes27c1,549$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd00b…c6d0backed Yes25c1,533$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde7e…bf12backed Yes27c1,532$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79d1…2a43backed Yes25c1,526$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50ac…aa4bbacked Yes22c1,500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1d…85a5backed Yes24c1,493$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60f9…985abacked Yes26c1,475$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb390…7fbebacked Yes27c1,435$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f8…e996backed Yes4c1,420$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+70%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00c2…0c09backed Yes27c1,415$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a2b…0723backed Yes24c1,410$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x294a…24bebacked Yes26c1,403$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6388…f05fbacked Yes26c1,367$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6809…7a3abacked Yes26c1,338$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa66d…f05dbacked Yes26c1,314$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5afa…7ba2backed Yes22c1,300$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c8…3d7abacked Yes27c1,293$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44b7…fcfbbacked Yes27c1,256$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed18…3404backed Yes28c1,241$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0b…bf25backed Yes24c1,240$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4dc…a6bcbacked Yes27c1,190$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0f…0e42backed Yes26c1,180$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b32…7bf4backed Yes25c1,158$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x171d…d478backed Yes27c1,124$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2889…358ebacked Yes27c1,096$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b84…efe0backed Yes24c1,022$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+291.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8321…7f74backed No74c985.1$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa77d…f634backed No74c980.7$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x178e…b835backed No76c978$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac33…61cbbacked No76c965.4$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01f3…5822backed No76c965.3$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x280d…7734backed No72c954$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c83…4176backed No74c950.6$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x923a…1554backed No74c950.1$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b3…4ea6backed No78c946$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e79…746cbacked No72c936$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c925.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d47…fd60backed No72c915$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d1…0c17backed Yes28c915$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49d4…b291backed No72c913$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ab…2cccbacked No72c913$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3541…c91ebacked No74c910.4$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0936…2119backed No72c910$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b42…c08ebacked Yes28c910$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x919b…72e3backed No76c909$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8beb…7c9ebacked No76c906$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d1…1519backed No77c906$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc0…c3a7backed No76c905.1$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x413a…44f2backed No72c905$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ad…f3b0backed No72c901$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8246…9e57backed No76c900.1$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1848…bd82backed No74c900.1$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a2…211cbacked No74c900.1$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x716f…8284backed Yes28c900$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb229…86e6backed Yes28c899$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b5…f3d2backed No78c894$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc3…b2cdbacked No72c893$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ffb…2330backed No74c890.3$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d3c…e99ebacked No73c888$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c2c…bab4backed No73c886$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x456e…60a6backed No73c882$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27c3…155cbacked No73c882$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ec6…fd69backed No73c881$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cc2…1372backed No73c881$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…daf4backed No74c880.5$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x050f…2d10backed No76c880.1$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x653c…908cbacked No76c879$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45ef…14fbbacked No73c876$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80f1…1e2abacked No73c875$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2087…583fbacked No73c875$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47f8…09c5backed No74c874$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.