Token Launches · resolved market
Rainbow FDV above $1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6dc9f12635e3aeeb3b7b219ffe340eea106c0f361ae1bcf251c73f45be6ac9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,941$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…4e2cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,662$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,580$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…de9ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…b0b7backed Yes | 5c | 1,300$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…f4f2backed Yes | 5c | 1,233$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea3…c7d1backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd1…cf99backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…39b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,147$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…0bcdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,109$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…583cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e6…fcd8backed Yes | 5c | 970$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…651abacked Yes | 5c | 960$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…b2eabacked Yes | 5c | 950$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…47babacked Yes | 6c | 860$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cba…b43fbacked Yes | 2c | 785.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7b…9db9backed Yes | 5c | 776$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087c…911abacked Yes | 6c | 759$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9333…1f65backed Yes | 6c | 750$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…7961backed Yes | 2c | 742.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b5…f3d2backed Yes | 5c | 710$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 20c | 700$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.32per pick | 12cpaid | +985.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf46a…2a53backed Yes | 6c | 700$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a17…a276backed Yes | 4c | 282.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 77c | 249.73$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae62…5146backed No | 51c | 195.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 45c | 195.14$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…fe31backed Yes | 27c | 184.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa96…9592backed No | 75c | 183.16$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…3a90backed Yes | 13c | 166.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 17c | 137.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…0e11backed Yes | 8c | 128.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…3971backed Yes | 44c | 113.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…8642backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…ff83backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9879…6effbacked Yes | 28c | 71.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 25c | 68.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…50a8backed Yes | 25c | 58.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 44.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 61c | 37.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 46c | 36.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca34…0429backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb802…7a12backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 56c | 23.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…62f9backed No | 77c | 20.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rainbow FDV above $1B one day after launch?this page
- Rainbow FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.