AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 lose the NOF1.ai competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e6b1d5ac20ca7a018a1cd5cd706d67895dc50eeca1f2886fb71e51299e8c3fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 4c | 10,014$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.63 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 76c | 2,494$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.71 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 44c | 2,008$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.88 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb42…0b87backed Yes | 57c | 1,122$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…5adabacked Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed No | 5c | 999.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…576bbacked Yes | 65c | 760.49$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 738.82$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.09 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…2c9abacked Yes | 78c | 677.93$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1730…0885backed Yes | 61c | 653.78$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 52c | 635.57$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.41 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…371cbacked Yes | 45c | 582.52$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 54c | 574.28$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.93 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 49c | 568.54$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.87 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 50c | 549.22$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.16 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 47c | 524.73$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.74 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 518.57$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.65 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 10c | 515.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…fbfdbacked Yes | 56c | 472.02$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.53 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…ae10backed Yes | 47c | 429.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 59c | 426.73$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.96 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 59c | 425.07$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.53 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 55c | 410$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.8 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa5…6292backed No | 53c | 402.69$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 72c | 373.59$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…5fb9backed Yes | 58c | 345.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…8471backed Yes | 49c | 338.26$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 39c | 318.95$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 50c | 274.58$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.1 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a7…6ddebacked Yes | 80c | 259.67$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 4c | 257.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb03e…9d82backed Yes | 34c | 252.22$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af7…2bf0backed Yes | 52c | 252.01$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 57c | 251.03$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.39 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa326…4556backed Yes | 62c | 249.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cb…574cbacked Yes | 40c | 249.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 54c | 242.72$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.09 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…a610backed No | 13c | 234.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +326.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 217.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 62c | 216.96$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…9f2abacked Yes | 57c | 214.1$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Yes | 30c | 200.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 58c | 180$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc5…7c0abacked Yes | 76c | 176.47$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4e…31cbbacked Yes | 45c | 173.91$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ef…dc64backed Yes | 59c | 169.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 70c | 161.85$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4a…9d39backed Yes | 79c | 156$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked No | 15c | 134.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 25c | 132.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 13c | 130.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…cfe2backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…608abacked Yes | 63c | 126.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 23c | 126.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Yes | 80c | 125.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 28c | 122.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.91 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…9490backed Yes | 44c | 114.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 112.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked Yes | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 60c | 101$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed Yes | 64c | 100.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…d98bbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…9c5cbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…0063backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…ef53backed Yes | 52c | 96.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 44c | 90.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb2…bd20backed Yes | 59c | 85.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…857fbacked Yes | 61c | 82.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes | 33c | 81.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…f447backed Yes | 79c | 78.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 26c | 77.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9c…2aeebacked Yes | 44c | 77.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +83%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 39c | 71.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…2a96backed Yes | 59c | 66.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 60c | 59.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 40c | 55.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…7a3fbacked Yes | 61c | 55.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa644…7b95backed Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b95…d55cbacked Yes | 64c | 54.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed Yes | 76c | 52.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce4…e43ebacked Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…7bb4backed Yes | 65c | 45.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…5a16backed Yes | 58c | 44.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Yes | 48c | 43.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb098…1038backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +249.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…34b2backed Yes | 49c | 41.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 76c | 40.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 75cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 58c | 40.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…cb3dbacked Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed Yes | 65c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +100%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Yes | 56c | 35.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 lose the NOF1.ai competition?this page
- Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max lose the NOF1.ai competition?No won
- Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet lose the NOF1.ai competition?No won
- Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat lose the NOF1.ai competition?No won
- Will Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro lose the NOF1.ai competition?No won
- Will xAI’s Grok 4 lose the NOF1.ai competition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.