AI · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40ad0c9cb69a2da8c92e51735fefed5102a0d1ee5486abba7b66264f3eb3382a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b8…fd20backed Yes | 78c | 934.95$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…52b0backed Yes | 20c | 810.31$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fed…d914backed Yes | 79c | 702.99$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 42c | 525$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 28c | 491.48$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.08 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 26c | 435.96$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…36f6backed No | 10c | 390.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 34c | 338.92$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.25 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 34c | 279.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 58c | 251$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117b…d2a7backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 52c | 239.61$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.73 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed Yes | 61c | 222$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 28c | 218$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.96 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…9490backed Yes | 25c | 213.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.22 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 72c | 205$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…449bbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…4423backed No | 16c | 170$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 60c | 168.36$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 56c | 166.37$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 24c | 165.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 164.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 39c | 148$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 58c | 147.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc532…8f74backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 29c | 114.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 15c | 112.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +199.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 106.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 24c | 99.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…dc60backed Yes | 66c | 90.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…aac7backed Yes | 61c | 81.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 60c | 77.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed No | 39c | 74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 71.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc68…bf42backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 58c | 62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 70c | 50.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bba…6046backed Yes | 40c | 44.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +153%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed No | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60a…144dbacked No | 80c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 23.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…6f45backed Yes | 57c | 21.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…2dbebacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…271fbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 24?this page
- Will Alphabet (GOOGL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 24?No won
- Will Meta Platforms (META) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 24?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.