TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Dodgers vs. Blue Jays

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dodgersof Dodgers, Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,557,389
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,773,396

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,557,389 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Blue Jays44c1,038,952$459,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,995.921145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Dodgers55c210,000$116,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,5009462.8%59 W · 35 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Dodgers57c179,827$103,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,708.041,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Dodgers55c146,067$80,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,189.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Dodgers56c118,079$66,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,009.963145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Dodgers55c103,104$56,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,365.7225453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Dodgers55c92,908$51,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,580.471560%9 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Blue Jays44c85,836$37,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,352.892347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Dodgers48c66,666$32,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,666.2753150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Dodgers56c62,000$34,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,28077053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe42e…8d89backed Dodgers56c55,245$31,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,033.81650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Blue Jays0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Blue Jays43c35,549$15,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,285.887651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x211e…30d1backed Dodgers56c26,775$14,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,781.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Blue Jays9c26,569$2,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.419435.1%33 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3e…d1c4backed Dodgers60c25,094$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,093.84650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Dodgers60c22,339$13,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,894.578445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Blue Jays43c22,276$9,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,488.3143949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Blue Jays44c20,455$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,00019649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Dodgers55c20,167$11,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,029.232356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Dodgers56c20,000$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,8007349.3%36 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Dodgers55c19,005$10,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,512.9211456.1%64 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb870…e5c9backed Dodgers57c18,500$10,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,9552100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Blue Jays45c17,978$8,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,108.122227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x591b…807cbacked Blue Jays43c17,907$7,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,70010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ae…0e0ebacked Blue Jays43c17,790$7,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,650366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Dodgers57c17,537$9,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,540.9114648.6%71 W · 75 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x051d…7679backed Dodgers57c17,500$9,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,524.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe212…d5f4backed Dodgers70c17,078$11,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,129.033138.7%12 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-32.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x64df…6facbacked Blue Jays45c16,667$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cae…09dcbacked Blue Jays45c16,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Blue Jays52c15,575$8,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,029.32,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Dodgers58c15,185$8,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,382.026653%35 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Dodgers57c15,000$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,4504965.3%32 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Dodgers56c15,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,6006660.6%40 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Blue Jays52c14,961$7,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,779.652445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Dodgers56c14,938$8,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,572.891,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa068…9574backed Blue Jays41c14,300$5,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,851.991546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fce…2229backed Blue Jays46c13,402$6,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,164.771136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-35.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x421e…4d4dbacked Dodgers55c13,310$7,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,989.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4740…030bbacked Dodgers56c13,090$7,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,732.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Dodgers59c12,138$7,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,953.2863152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8831…2b4bbacked Blue Jays44c12,000$5,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,28010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Dodgers56c12,000$6,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,279.882060%12 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b6…5a9ebacked Blue Jays44c11,555$5,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,084.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e9…a5afbacked Dodgers57c11,555$6,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,968.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c9f…db18backed Blue Jays43c11,348$4,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,879.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Blue Jays45c11,111$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002536%9 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a9a…6a03backed Dodgers55c10,940$6,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,923933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7610…6718backed Dodgers58c10,600$6,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22b7…6a84backed Blue Jays44c10,600$4,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,66410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Dodgers57c10,526$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,526.321070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa099…94febacked Dodgers57c10,526$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,526.32540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x770a…984ebacked Blue Jays44c10,523$4,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,630250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…5500backed Blue Jays44c10,400$4,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,57610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5787…7660backed Blue Jays43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,299.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Dodgers55c10,000$5,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,449.967548%36 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Dodgers56c9,479$5,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,204.2311551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Blue Jays44c9,330$4,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,104.992948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0716…d029backed Blue Jays44c9,290$4,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,087.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d2…b30ebacked Dodgers56c9,227$5,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,059.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31ab…29a5backed Dodgers58c9,100$5,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34f2…b0f5backed Dodgers57c9,100$5,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb43f…ec95backed Dodgers56c8,791$4,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,868.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707b…69f2backed Dodgers57c8,772$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,771.935745.6%26 W · 31 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Dodgers56c8,398$4,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,656.831747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb5…00cdbacked Dodgers57c7,557$4,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,249.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e58…be1fbacked Blue Jays43c7,535$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,24010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Blue Jays44c7,432$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2501258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Blue Jays41c7,381$3,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,053.081,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc0…0fa5backed Dodgers57c7,300$4,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,171.991275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+55.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Dodgers56c7,000$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,08011544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Dodgers56c6,929$3,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,048.67887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.42per pick46cpaid+91.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Dodgers55c6,744$3,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,029.9912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Blue Jays52c6,500$3,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,379.9617156.1%96 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda6b…20bebacked Blue Jays53c6,371$3,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,360.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f0d…747bbacked Blue Jays44c6,180$2,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x854a…aed0backed Blue Jays43c5,583$2,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f89…d508backed Dodgers56c5,357$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.146100%6 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Blue Jays43c5,350$2,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Dodgers55c5,168$2,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,325.4913246.2%61 W · 71 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Dodgers57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,150757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Dodgers55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Dodgers53c4,909$2,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,323.8951151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Dodgers53c4,907$2,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,314.6133554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa530…4280backed Blue Jays10c4,753$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.361717.6%3 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7509…4b9dbacked Dodgers56c4,633$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.89540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e39…3122backed Dodgers58c4,582$2,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,930.04875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+47.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c85…cfecbacked Blue Jays43c4,400$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,892757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Dodgers56c4,109$2,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,790.732250%11 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+35.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa71a…e4e2backed Dodgers56c3,914$2,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.11742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Blue Jays43c3,798$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0774…99febacked Dodgers56c3,715$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,635.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5918…6bfcbacked Blue Jays37c3,709$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.011656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x966d…eaa5backed Blue Jays23c3,681$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc5f…364abacked Blue Jays29c3,677$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10e7…ee84backed Dodgers56c3,560$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Blue Jays43c3,488$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.841050%5 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…9ed3backed Blue Jays44c3,409$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Blue Jays45c3,316$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.36666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.