MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4c2c418342e0faf76efb289f23878e80adb1e7af4c4b3116567bb56f7162ec1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 6,322$2,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,494.74 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 4,175$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,410.68 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 3,331$2,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,047.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 2,537$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.4 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 1,602$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.01 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…12f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 434$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 399.99$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 8c | 349.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…c52cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 68.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 43.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Dodgers vs. Blue JaysDodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.