TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump announce TikTok deal by Thursday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,039

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,941 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes23c4,727$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.561050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x268c…a03abacked No76c3,610$2,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed Yes26c3,114$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes23c2,166$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.442626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f4…8612backed Yes1c2,122$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c2,085$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.73310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes36c2,042$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x974a…ee7bbacked Yes15c1,846$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d8…e6afbacked No74c1,252$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes42c1,116$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66f3…3dadbacked Yes21c1,002$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.341625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-59.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f5e…1773backed No71c981.9$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes21c975.6$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.941020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4416…4754backed Yes44c898.28$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes23c733.88$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No76c657.17$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.87666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No74c647.5$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.31666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf12d…fa80backed No73c603.37$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6354…13c6backed No70c580$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes21c575.48$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.712250%11 W · 11 L+4.6wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+58%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb028…b0dcbacked Yes35c574.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No67c572.94$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+144.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No67c554.42$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.393928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes15c510.35$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd89b…7945backed No75c509.04$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.781338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…ede8backed No70c500$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc46…4fb8backed No73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed Yes30c499.99$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf058…955bbacked Yes26c467.25$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes23c465.35$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.451346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick27cpaid+43.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e2c…77f0backed No80c447.12$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8e1…3cf3backed Yes17c442.87$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db5…c498backed Yes17c440.58$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4762…dc1bbacked Yes24c413$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed89…647bbacked No76c408.18$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes33c407.7$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.582080%16 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+49.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed Yes4c402$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0860%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes31c399.99$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce49…c3b9backed No64c369.72$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa027…9a07backed No72c347.96$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22e0…3c22backed No58c344.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc760…1761backed Yes29c340.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee0c…d978backed Yes34c336.21$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9379…2e25backed Yes8c329.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No69c326.06$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.692445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0518…5da2backed No61c320.26$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c6f…8b32backed Yes17c301.7$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed No69c290.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e1d…5c5abacked No72c290$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83bf…3bb6backed Yes26c279.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeacc…1480backed Yes36c275.24$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes19c265.95$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfc…b253backed No78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d0…881ebacked No80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c20…64a2backed Yes20c248.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb28c…be33backed No78c236.32$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2623…845dbacked No59c230.23$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe529…ce81backed Yes24c230.23$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac3a…6835backed No74c225$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-72.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes14c221.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.083444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e7…89b4backed Yes5c218.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes23c211.58$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+67.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a45…bbe0backed No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e24…9ad9backed No72c190.67$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ecf…c70bbacked No75c185.53$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes28c181.07$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.74540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c175.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.156933.3%23 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2745…9b66backed Yes40c169.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…d837backed Yes24c166$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf557…96f0backed Yes31c161.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14cf…594ebacked Yes31c160.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+123.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44cf…beecbacked No63c159.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a08…7ff5backed Yes22c154.55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05c…7242backed Yes16c153.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd28…94d4backed No69c143.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab2…02bebacked No72c137.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed No77c137.31$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb60b…b0ffbacked No73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x644e…ff58backed No65c136.62$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+74%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x040f…7163backed No74c135.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…e5e7backed No74c135.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f7…8e9fbacked No78c134.79$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc50c…58e8backed No77c130$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b2…383dbacked No79c129.98$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1626…9992backed No62c128.1$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed No79c127.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98e0…bf01backed No79c126.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes28c123.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1133…9772backed Yes19c122.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2073…11d2backed Yes27c115.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed No70c113.61$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.611030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes21c110$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No68c109.06$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9db…4048backed No76c105.75$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd486…ce3bbacked Yes25c100.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes25c100.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.035345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.