China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump announce TikTok deal by Thursday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43d659f9113f849d7248498e2a28b1c8a277e10a5ba70d66b829692d22ccb1a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 23c | 4,727$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…a03abacked No | 76c | 3,610$2,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 26c | 3,114$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 23c | 2,166$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.44 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…8612backed Yes | 1c | 2,122$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,085$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 36c | 2,042$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…ee7bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,846$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…e6afbacked No | 74c | 1,252$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 42c | 1,116$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked Yes | 21c | 1,002$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.34 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed No | 71c | 981.9$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 21c | 975.6$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…4754backed Yes | 44c | 898.28$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 23c | 733.88$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 76c | 657.17$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 74c | 647.5$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…fa80backed No | 73c | 603.37$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6354…13c6backed No | 70c | 580$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 21c | 575.48$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…b0dcbacked Yes | 35c | 574.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 67c | 572.94$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 67c | 554.42$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.39 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 15c | 510.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed No | 75c | 509.04$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…ede8backed No | 70c | 500$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…4fb8backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed Yes | 30c | 499.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 26c | 467.25$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 465.35$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…77f0backed No | 80c | 447.12$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e1…3cf3backed Yes | 17c | 442.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…c498backed Yes | 17c | 440.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…dc1bbacked Yes | 24c | 413$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…647bbacked No | 76c | 408.18$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 33c | 407.7$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 4c | 402$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 31c | 399.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed No | 64c | 369.72$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa027…9a07backed No | 72c | 347.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e0…3c22backed No | 58c | 344.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc760…1761backed Yes | 29c | 340.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…d978backed Yes | 34c | 336.21$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…2e25backed Yes | 8c | 329.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 69c | 326.06$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 61c | 320.26$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…8b32backed Yes | 17c | 301.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed No | 69c | 290.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1d…5c5abacked No | 72c | 290$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83bf…3bb6backed Yes | 26c | 279.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeacc…1480backed Yes | 36c | 275.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 19c | 265.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…b253backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…881ebacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c20…64a2backed Yes | 20c | 248.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed No | 78c | 236.32$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2623…845dbacked No | 59c | 230.23$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…ce81backed Yes | 24c | 230.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…6835backed No | 74c | 225$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 14c | 221.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 5c | 218.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 23c | 211.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…bbe0backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…9ad9backed No | 72c | 190.67$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecf…c70bbacked No | 75c | 185.53$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 28c | 181.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 175.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…9b66backed Yes | 40c | 169.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…d837backed Yes | 24c | 166$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…96f0backed Yes | 31c | 161.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…594ebacked Yes | 31c | 160.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…beecbacked No | 63c | 159.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…7ff5backed Yes | 22c | 154.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05c…7242backed Yes | 16c | 153.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd28…94d4backed No | 69c | 143.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab2…02bebacked No | 72c | 137.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed No | 77c | 137.31$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb60b…b0ffbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644e…ff58backed No | 65c | 136.62$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +74%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…7163backed No | 74c | 135.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…e5e7backed No | 74c | 135.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…8e9fbacked No | 78c | 134.79$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…58e8backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b2…383dbacked No | 79c | 129.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…9992backed No | 62c | 128.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed No | 79c | 127.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 79c | 126.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 28c | 123.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1133…9772backed Yes | 19c | 122.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2073…11d2backed Yes | 27c | 115.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed No | 70c | 113.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 68c | 109.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…4048backed No | 76c | 105.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd486…ce3bbacked Yes | 25c | 100.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 100.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.