TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Mikie Sherrill win by >14%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,361,335
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,345,314

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,361,335 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe405…bf91backed No10c627,759$64,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,904.5430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed No6c35,297$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.0150%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd46e…904abacked No4c25,990$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe46b…5635backed No6c17,828$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe340…39f9backed No6c16,848$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.671127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5323…bb93backed No6c15,908$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No4c9,046$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.35611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc23…8bc9backed No1c8,888$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.99633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c8,418$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0849711.5%57 W · 440 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes68c7,302$4,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3066154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No2c6,655$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.15119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-66.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf70f…d753backed No31c5,770$1,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,787.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed No4c5,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No63c5,000$3,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,165.561030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes56c5,000$2,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,190.563030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No1c4,185$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.841823.8%7 W · 175 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes66c3,751$2,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.744452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked No42c3,330$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.650%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked No1c3,004$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x408d…aa38backed Yes47c2,864$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No3c2,359$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4585.2%3 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc76…f087backed No28c1,807$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd60…f25fbacked Yes60c1,764$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ab…25dbbacked No3c1,724$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdaf…aecdbacked No37c1,653$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x662a…77b7backed No25c1,604$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc75…a292backed No33c1,521$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a12…9d86backed No4c1,402$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3327…11debacked No48c1,346$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.581118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No10c1,324$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.41717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdc3…3bb7backed No2c1,295$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01dc…1839backed No7c1,265$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3e…3bd4backed Yes64c1,230$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d89…340cbacked No16c1,200$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.26911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-79%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44b3…28a1backed No1c1,111$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2a…41e5backed No65c1,010$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45a7…fdb3backed No9c1,007$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde6f…4a7bbacked No52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4aa7…5458backed No14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed Yes62c999.98$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.391181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+126%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ac4…ca67backed No3c900$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4fd…6cc0backed Yes56c891.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.232100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+120.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No26c881.75$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.454240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes60c881.64$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.021346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x122d…6aa2backed No24c845.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x035a…0154backed Yes36c839.81$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+179.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7979…202fbacked Yes57c832$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.763100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb295…3a9fbacked No7c822.27$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.19425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed No4c800$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No41c732$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.342128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Yes54c729.03$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.031643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-25.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96df…1f97backed No60c706.84$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.511741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d4d…9f3abacked Yes66c695.23$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No1c693.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a10…e840backed No17c655.55$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3458…b5a7backed No3c586.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-72.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No33c567.58$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.112440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc7…5b85backed No4c562.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75aa…9f2abacked No14c557.61$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd698…dfc0backed No3c520.11$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes33c520$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a93…ecf9backed No4c500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d19…4513backed Yes61c492.26$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0d…42dcbacked No3c480$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes38c465.48$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.65650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f1f…8045backed No21c465.16$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes62c454.14$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.531931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d27…ced0backed No14c400$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc1…d114backed No3c400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88f1…5c9dbacked No5c399.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0e…4838backed No9c370$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked No14c369.95$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.991915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed Yes35c365.96$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.194037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf597…f4aebacked No38c364.99$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.440%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06db…5244backed No13c337$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4217…8bf7backed No15c333$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.95650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f66…ede0backed Yes67c322.72$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe5…91aabacked No16c307.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d60…6f3bbacked No59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c8e…e857backed No29c299.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…a30cbacked No9c299.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes60c296.38$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.243135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No58c290$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.21910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-77.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes43c290$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.32240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+74.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ee…8fc2backed No32c286.47$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No9c280.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7234129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes41c230$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1352055%11 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf547…9ebbbacked No5c213.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed No13c210$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes65c204.65$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.432842.9%12 W · 16 L-6.0wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-35.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x1087…8f8dbacked Yes44c202$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb28c…be33backed Yes79c200$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed Yes62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd834…e011backed Yes76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6556…8647backed No56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc68…bf42backed No53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x385e…3896backed No62c200$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b9f…d2b9backed Yes32c191.89$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.