Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla reach $480 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa34730f328a526f4f3c6bbe46f86df003627efbad36438d261a65b36cb1c4e95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5e0…fc31backed Yes | 1c | 4,345$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,591$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…f622backed Yes | 5c | 2,127$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…52c0backed Yes | 9c | 1,377$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb12…6a49backed Yes | 8c | 1,202$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,123$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 65c | 849.98$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.5 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 4c | 846.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c24…91dbbacked Yes | 7c | 837.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…d06fbacked Yes | 76c | 755$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 18c | 634.64$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.48 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 22c | 633.32$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +294.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 61c | 532.81$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.51 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 32c | 504.25$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 498.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 8c | 415.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 41c | 411.58$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.91 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…8c3cbacked No | 64c | 313.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceeb…749dbacked No | 21c | 304.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…abfabacked No | 73c | 277.09$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…12f2backed Yes | 7c | 273.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 77c | 260$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 8c | 259.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 39c | 255.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747b…f422backed Yes | 79c | 209.05$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e3…fd17backed Yes | 28c | 202.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.1 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 189.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 54c | 186.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…d930backed Yes | 77c | 153.05$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 38c | 144.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 77c | 135$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 75c | 130$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 76c | 100.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…30f4backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…a73ebacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…9490backed No | 49c | 91.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cc…8cbcbacked Yes | 27c | 90.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 90.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 59c | 79.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3f…1d38backed Yes | 64c | 78.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…b146backed Yes | 28c | 70.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5915…536bbacked Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c09…c918backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe701…942ebacked Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…465fbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -6.8wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf785…e366backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…3f02backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…d7b2backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ac…89adbacked No | 41c | 49.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c84…4f2dbacked No | 66c | 47.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…e7b2backed No | 73c | 36.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…a3b9backed Yes | 61c | 32.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a69…dbc4backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla reach $480 in November?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $375 in November?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $390 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $398 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $420 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $435 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $450 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $430 in Nov 25-28?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $465 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $548 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.