Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla dip to $398 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd87728d406e05a3fa2669b8e398a3b8bb16f1dce20f4592b144d749e51351da7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 61c | 2,025$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.99 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,783$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53a…4034backed Yes | 56c | 1,087$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…104fbacked No | 65c | 999.72$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 37c | 497.07$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.47 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 66c | 468.63$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.07 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454e…62b9backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db6…1d97backed No | 21c | 209.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…5604backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 31c | 199.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 53c | 181.71$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 34c | 160$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 41c | 150.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.26 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…3e44backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…4fddbacked Yes | 37c | 115.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 35c | 105.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 90.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 54c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 64c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 42c | 62.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 21c | 52.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…3f02backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…ed3ebacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…78e9backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…d7b2backed Yes | 38c | 40.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ce…d575backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla dip to $398 in November?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $375 in November?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $390 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $420 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $435 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $450 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $430 in Nov 25-28?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $465 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $480 in November?No won
- Will Tesla reach $548 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.