Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla dip to $375 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc985904fc6e07382b0fd18e9d2061b00ec3cd623034e25dd8bbd10467522412b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 39c | 2,015$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.57 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 50c | 1,335$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee8…1805backed No | 59c | 812.09$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff8…3011backed Yes | 55c | 751.35$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 65c | 439.4$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.01 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…3ad5backed Yes | 42c | 367.4$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 10c | 349.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 45c | 332.09$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.71 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 49c | 315.32$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.04 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 25c | 280.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…9afcbacked Yes | 74c | 270$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes | 25c | 252.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.8wins | -0.36per pick | 42cpaid | -88%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 54c | 222.22$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.46 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 23c | 207.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59f9…3739backed Yes | 47c | 204.93$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…3cb1backed Yes | 25c | 183.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651b…393fbacked No | 60c | 166.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 40c | 143.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 26c | 128.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 127.23$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…668cbacked No | 57c | 125.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…9af9backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 45c | 109$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 42c | 104.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…79e2backed Yes | 61c | 98.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 77.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 56c | 71.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 60.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe94…cf64backed Yes | 28c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 58c | 59.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…0564backed Yes | 46c | 55.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 43c | 51.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…8444backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7a…6f1bbacked No | 58c | 49.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…a96ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c05…3e49backed Yes | 44c | 45.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 37.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…b7e3backed Yes | 56c | 36.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…6f4dbacked Yes | 46c | 32.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2813…5c42backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8980…e702backed No | 56c | 31.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…e037backed No | 58c | 31.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…eddebacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…7ceebacked No | 57c | 26.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…a8eebacked No | 54c | 22.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b7…b825backed Yes | 75c | 15.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla dip to $375 in November?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $390 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $398 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $420 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $435 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $450 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $430 in Nov 25-28?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $465 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $480 in November?No won
- Will Tesla reach $548 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.