Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla dip to $435 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a744f1b6cb5972596fae4a600eff4757d233bc9b68b6afa98e3c421f917515d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,811$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 1c | 1,093$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…9c16backed No | 2c | 631.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…d930backed No | 16c | 419.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f66…d779backed No | 9c | 373.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 4c | 330.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 12c | 282.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 8c | 242.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 11c | 219.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 10c | 116.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 16c | 100.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 22c | 89.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf785…e366backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla dip to $435 in November?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $375 in November?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $390 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $398 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $420 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $450 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $430 in Nov 25-28?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $465 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $480 in November?No won
- Will Tesla reach $548 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.