Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla dip to $420 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa68e044d4852fbcb768cc0e4dc1c63cae45f0a25341d1830db97da88bb1c87a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 12c | 3,501$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.76 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 21c | 3,374$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 76c | 2,351$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.46 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 76c | 1,301$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.36 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 33c | 555$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.46 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…0272backed No | 22c | 461.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4226…ddaebacked No | 27c | 457.71$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53a…4034backed Yes | 78c | 436.44$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.06 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 30c | 318.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 15c | 288$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 35c | 276.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 21c | 266.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 266.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…f784backed Yes | 76c | 257.09$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 77c | 250.5$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…d06fbacked No | 40c | 222.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 19c | 219.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +294.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 40c | 186.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 23c | 165$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 40c | 162.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…d7b2backed Yes | 77c | 128.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 20c | 118.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 21c | 110.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 20c | 106.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4db6…1d97backed No | 24c | 103$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…465fbacked No | 41c | 91.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 79.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6893…6943backed No | 15c | 67.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…12f2backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…5518backed No | 27c | 48.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 78c | 45.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 26c | 44.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff8…3011backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1740…3a97backed Yes | 60c | 36.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…2cc0backed Yes | 76c | 34.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 74c | 29.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 40c | 27.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 41c | 24.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2b…8434backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…aba9backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla dip to $420 in November?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $375 in November?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $390 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $398 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $435 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $450 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $430 in Nov 25-28?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $465 in November?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $480 in November?No won
- Will Tesla reach $548 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.