TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof Team Spirit, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$591,179
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$618,644

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $591,179 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 403 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa925…e1c8backed Team Spirit64c57,458$36,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,581.133953.8%21 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Team Spirit76c48,004$36,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,483.965757.9%33 W · 24 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick72cpaid-22.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed MOUZ44c39,906$17,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,411.5413155%72 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ31c29,978$9,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,537.772,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed MOUZ60c21,694$12,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,694.385558.2%32 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed Team Spirit55c18,143$10,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,016.0310661.3%65 W · 41 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ34c16,993$5,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,276.1245139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed MOUZ30c12,673$3,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,825.228341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ33c11,663$3,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,775.1789440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked Team Spirit57c11,566$6,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,644.2615852.5%83 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed MOUZ49c11,354$5,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,758.2155751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked MOUZ15c10,344$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,813.581457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked MOUZ32c10,132$3,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,919.2519943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Spirit40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00033850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked MOUZ38c10,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,2001353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Spirit61c10,000$6,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,049.9922848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe612…abc9backed MOUZ32c9,015$2,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,130.176237.1%23 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed MOUZ38c7,260$2,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,505.374438.6%17 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ41c7,193$2,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,266.111,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Team Spirit37c7,051$2,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,608.732937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb78f…3a77backed MOUZ46c6,288$2,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,369.114264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Team Spirit40c5,981$2,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,392.3219148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked MOUZ34c5,552$1,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,658.3485851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed MOUZ41c5,187$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,063.254645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Team Spirit65c5,063$3,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,298.6519047.9%91 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed MOUZ50c4,878$2,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,463.0153652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed MOUZ38c4,807$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,974.246854.4%37 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Team Spirit69c4,425$3,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,062.456647%31 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed MOUZ31c4,380$1,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,022.0213346.6%62 W · 71 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed MOUZ40c4,204$1,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,515.288627.9%24 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed Team Spirit73c4,123$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00012459.7%74 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3973…b13ebacked MOUZ22c3,840$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9941118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed MOUZ12c3,718$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,256.1222033.6%74 W · 146 L-0.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30d1…2ecdbacked Team Spirit42c3,600$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.9812533.6%42 W · 83 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed MOUZ46c3,410$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,824.310340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68d7…1c0bbacked Team Spirit70c3,365$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.8955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Team Spirit47c3,307$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.8434146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a3…4ebebacked MOUZ38c3,270$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.8875%6 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+79.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed MOUZ42c3,170$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.722647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3342…f908backed Team Spirit36c3,032$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.062759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4612…d4b2backed MOUZ36c3,015$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,943.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+51.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Team Spirit67c3,000$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick59cpaid-71.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked MOUZ14c3,000$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,585.99378.1%3 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-73.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed MOUZ34c2,939$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,938.688245.1%37 W · 45 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x217f…5d10backed MOUZ16c2,841$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,395.839128.6%26 W · 65 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Team Spirit65c2,730$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,77126453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24b5…e607backed MOUZ39c2,655$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.772737%10 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed MOUZ62c2,588$1,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.5319147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6857…9f77backed MOUZ34c2,510$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.713342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20a5…de1bbacked MOUZ35c2,500$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6255358.5%31 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked MOUZ43c2,460$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,402.110048%48 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db3…932fbacked Team Spirit59c2,367$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.7716149.7%80 W · 81 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed MOUZ61c2,302$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.696261.3%38 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25ed…6ac6backed MOUZ62c2,251$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.327855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed Team Spirit70c2,250$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57534667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe26f…1545backed MOUZ39c2,117$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc56e…453cbacked Team Spirit62c2,102$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.362646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed MOUZ15c2,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7005750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed MOUZ39c2,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.9910745.8%49 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed MOUZ16c1,999$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.497143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed MOUZ61c1,901$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.0218075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked MOUZ55c1,883$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.516665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…92dfbacked Team Spirit57c1,815$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6683…de6bbacked Team Spirit67c1,801$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.793557.1%20 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Team Spirit71c1,707$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.6417946.9%84 W · 95 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5fc…d802backed MOUZ20c1,701$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3601127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick11cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd041…7b26backed MOUZ33c1,593$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+74.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07e9…37b6backed Team Spirit43c1,560$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.640%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Team Spirit62c1,546$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.933557.1%20 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Team Spirit68c1,471$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011557.4%66 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…b518backed Team Spirit68c1,471$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.993964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5341…2b42backed Team Spirit70c1,429$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked Team Spirit57c1,423$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.1815653.2%83 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c6a…6890backed Team Spirit37c1,418$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed MOUZ40c1,396$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.2817950.3%90 W · 89 L+14.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed Team Spirit39c1,391$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.2514136.9%52 W · 89 L-13.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb4b…ab60backed MOUZ36c1,389$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.89666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33ae…433cbacked Team Spirit57c1,353$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.48520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-68.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked MOUZ53c1,300$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60712654.8%69 W · 57 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed MOUZ41c1,260$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.113554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed MOUZ63c1,233$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.0515345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cb1…984ebacked Team Spirit44c1,200$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.991241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed MOUZ44c1,194$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.866460.9%39 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5c0…3cd3backed Team Spirit60c1,182$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick50cpaid-78%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6bd5…81b0backed Team Spirit64c1,103$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.947630.3%23 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed Team Spirit68c1,100$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47f…d792backed Team Spirit65c1,063$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.03742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8942…9ea9backed MOUZ47c1,035$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.366943.5%30 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d37…eecdbacked MOUZ32c990$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda74…0aa3backed Team Spirit69c980$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7990…53d0backed Team Spirit69c980$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb064…714dbacked MOUZ32c970$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed MOUZ37c927.51$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.749750.5%49 W · 48 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec61…4a2ebacked Team Spirit61c924.72$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.3710941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x946f…518cbacked MOUZ26c900$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6641040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x503d…886abacked MOUZ35c867.36$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.362931%9 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55e…c136backed MOUZ36c833.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.333557.1%20 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+4.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a5d…99ebbacked MOUZ56c825.25$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.314668.5%100 W · 46 L+14.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa17…3aa2backed Team Spirit45c799.98$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.998557.6%49 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa49…6330backed MOUZ63c790.48$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.4811157.7%64 W · 47 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.