Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79a28d8012a71643752f253cb2be5aeea814a1eb8b04a34678b064317b6e6dfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $218,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Over | 62c | 25,952$16,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,774.69 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Under | 36c | 21,445$7,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,780.01 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Under | 17c | 17,300$2,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,975.56 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Over | 61c | 12,602$7,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,859.46 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 38c | 10,032$3,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,834.89 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Under | 16c | 5,799$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.53 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Over | 66c | 5,527$3,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.26 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Under | 25c | 4,500$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb787…ad0abacked Under | 8c | 4,316$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.4 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…b2e0backed Under | 38c | 4,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 62c | 3,114$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.34 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…886abacked Under | 7c | 2,253$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.7 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Under | 38c | 2,042$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Over | 64c | 1,939$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.99 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Under | 11c | 1,789$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.43 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Over | 56c | 1,396$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.37 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5952…8a5ebacked Under | 4c | 1,390$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56e…453cbacked Over | 61c | 1,142$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.84 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b5…e607backed Over | 64c | 1,038$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.53 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e23…0fbfbacked Under | 39c | 1,026$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…0187backed Under | 50c | 1,000$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc0…5f47backed Under | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Under | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78f…3a77backed Over | 55c | 999.96$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.98 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Under | 15c | 940.43$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…2eb8backed Under | 41c | 731.95$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Under | 6c | 723.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Under | 39c | 700$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Under | 38c | 660$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Under | 3c | 628.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…92dfbacked Under | 37c | 609$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4c…e430backed Over | 60c | 566.67$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.67 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 56c | 499.96$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…4c6dbacked Under | 44c | 477.64$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Under | 45c | 434.62$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d1…1f2abacked Under | 28c | 412.28$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.27 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee6f…3859backed Under | 39c | 358.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Under | 20c | 318.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Under | 37c | 305.82$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Under | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…b9c0backed Under | 42c | 281.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Under | 36c | 280.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Under | 33c | 260$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 74c | 250.94$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Under | 30c | 231.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Over | 65c | 229.22$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…2640backed Under | 48c | 228.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…3d14backed Under | 44c | 225.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Under | 44c | 211.14$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…7477backed Under | 38c | 171.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…f2ffbacked Over | 56c | 162$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 61c | 145$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca3b…3848backed Under | 11c | 141.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…39a0backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…9ea9backed Under | 52c | 130.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Under | 27c | 122.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca50…7aa5backed Over | 74c | 120.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…74bdbacked Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…377abacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2477…700ebacked Over | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf5…e2d4backed Under | 52c | 97.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Under | 39c | 84.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…ae6ebacked Over | 70c | 84.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…09f1backed Over | 61c | 82.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Over | 65c | 82.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Under | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Under | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…9ac6backed Under | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Over | 70c | 66.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…41f9backed Under | 47c | 63.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b3…67cdbacked Over | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7484…de96backed Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16af…d006backed Under | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 36c | 48.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcca…64f6backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4324…d055backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…14f1backed Over | 49c | 22.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5541…9c6abacked Over | 59c | 20.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 3 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.