AI · resolved market
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x843beae191e17491a269e9a300eb98ec3532a1018ab43c188a6f30eccdfd62cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfce1…710cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -71%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 19c | 4,032$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.04 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,782$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.38 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda01…1bcabacked Yes | 10c | 1,372$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,066$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.08 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 9c | 859.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…b890backed Yes | 25c | 799.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 76c | 739.85$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.37 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 629.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 6c | 520$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…7074backed Yes | 21c | 487.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +384.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e12…8fe1backed Yes | 13c | 469.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…131fbacked Yes | 12c | 413.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 3c | 396.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 16c | 285.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…842fbacked Yes | 47c | 275$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed Yes | 6c | 259.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 54c | 255$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 79c | 251.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 9c | 232.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 220.98$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 51c | 217$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 16c | 211.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…4addbacked Yes | 17c | 201.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96fd…62f5backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…f4d1backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 79c | 164.55$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…fd67backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…4e2fbacked Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 11c | 136.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2552…73d2backed Yes | 12c | 123.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e27…e92abacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…e156backed Yes | 12c | 101.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f8…7abdbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…9490backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 52c | 64.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 44.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…4d3bbacked No | 50c | 28.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c1…d49bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0910…ce1cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will no company have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.