AI · resolved market
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc47a00ca4047f025cdbc4e32a895a51190ff4c00fdcb4ca73e0256bb798bc819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 1c | 6,037$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 69c | 2,923$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016.86 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 67c | 2,913$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,957.25 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed No | 33c | 2,633$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.52 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,794$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.24 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda01…1bcabacked No | 29c | 1,589$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…8c8bbacked Yes | 75c | 1,400$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd826…c1adbacked No | 21c | 1,310$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x327b…5a8cbacked Yes | 77c | 1,302$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…8908backed Yes | 65c | 1,239$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.32 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed No | 26c | 999.66$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.09 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…131fbacked No | 20c | 925.26$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 50c | 901.56$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.43 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 32c | 885.07$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.39 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 70c | 800$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.12 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 47c | 770.8$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.32 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 80c | 740.65$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.74 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 72c | 695.44$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…2773backed No | 22c | 600$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 70c | 597.92$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.55 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 27c | 589.79$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.87 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 66c | 580.49$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.37 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 67c | 520$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.8 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 21c | 519.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.79 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 26c | 510.79$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.56 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.99 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x123a…326abacked Yes | 69c | 444.96$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 30c | 419.66$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.51 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 23c | 390.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.98 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…311fbacked No | 34c | 385.02$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +376.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 70c | 350$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.88 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 71c | 349.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe01d…c11fbacked Yes | 50c | 333$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a90…97bdbacked Yes | 50c | 333$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840c…6f10backed No | 50c | 333$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084a…6d19backed No | 50c | 333$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…2705backed No | 35c | 313$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…72f6backed Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…ffb3backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9499…8e81backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 32c | 299.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41c4…0a7dbacked No | 30c | 255$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 64c | 250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 67c | 237.6$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.19 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…fd67backed No | 56c | 236.2$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.04 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 48c | 210.66$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 66c | 201.87$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 68c | 200$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 61c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5f…d583backed Yes | 64c | 199.79$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 60c | 177$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.65 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 175.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.78 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked No | 28c | 151.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…de8dbacked Yes | 65c | 149.13$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1210…cf24backed Yes | 28c | 137.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa05…da6ebacked Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 36c | 131.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 30c | 128.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 127.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.53 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 27c | 126.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.04 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba0…64fabacked Yes | 67c | 122.88$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x408d…aa38backed No | 18c | 120$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 68c | 119.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 53c | 118.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc434…7003backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 31cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 25c | 107.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 29c | 105.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 30c | 101.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…fa12backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…e39fbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 93.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…96cfbacked No | 30c | 89.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 23c | 87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…648ebacked No | 25c | 86.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 34c | 82.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda0…6aebbacked No | 35c | 82.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…a1eebacked Yes | 41c | 80.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87c1…d49bbacked Yes | 39c | 77.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 23c | 76.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c26…7a7abacked Yes | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked No | 51c | 74.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…511fbacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed Yes | 74c | 69.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 29c | 65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 41c | 55.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes | 65c | 52.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will no company have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.