AI · resolved market
Will no company have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c0f4741448307b4910e040e9a44bca14adf88a2cb9730dafadde457c319a14f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,888$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 10c | 4,376$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 6c | 1,420$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…cd20backed Yes | 5c | 1,350$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 8c | 1,265$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…fecabacked Yes | 13c | 1,214$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.67 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 8c | 1,183$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.83 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 8c | 800$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 2c | 771.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 4c | 721.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 7c | 701.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 7c | 700.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 6c | 679.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 657.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda01…1bcabacked Yes | 8c | 632.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…516cbacked Yes | 10c | 500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 12c | 500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…2bc2backed Yes | 13c | 370.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 5c | 339.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…fa12backed Yes | 11c | 304.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 10c | 256.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 9c | 186.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 178.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf85e…3c77backed Yes | 9c | 162.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf258…e4b0backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd826…c1adbacked Yes | 9c | 113.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will no company have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.