AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bc3b26fa0f5dd9f4b91f29a8f26d471405b036e68cfb13b54a4df372d80734c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 9c | 10,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61fd…0b23backed Yes | 1c | 7,090$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,004.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +8,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ff…f376backed No | 0c | 5,089$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x621f…c4dfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,609$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,572.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +6,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…beb8backed Yes | 1c | 3,982$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,942.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…7074backed Yes | 3c | 3,384$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,284.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +384.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 2c | 2,828$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,762.22 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 1c | 2,763$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,740.73 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +478.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,580$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430.09 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…1a6abacked Yes | 15c | 2,380$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 27c | 2,337$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,694.55 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd36c…6b38backed Yes | 1c | 1,830$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +598.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 10c | 1,666$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 10c | 1,262$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.89 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 1,040$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 10c | 1,040$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d8…6783backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…202dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.95 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.8 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…d398backed Yes | 22c | 835$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.63 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.30per pick | 28cpaid | +122%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 2c | 699.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.49 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 48c | 673.29$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.18 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 30c | 653.29$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…1d22backed Yes | 5c | 613.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.88 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +220.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed Yes | 7c | 523.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +327.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…311fbacked Yes | 4c | 479.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +376.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 41c | 401.71$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.67 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa086…e0bebacked No | 3c | 375.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 348.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.44 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 7c | 328.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.27 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 9c | 280$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 267.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.82 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 30c | 250$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…9582backed Yes | 40c | 249.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 18c | 225.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.59 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 45c | 187.31$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 49c | 155.39$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 71c | 147.28$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 102$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 57c | 89.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x139a…05fbbacked Yes | 18c | 82.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +447.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x203d…e00fbacked No | 78c | 25.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 68c | 17.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will no company have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
- Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.