College Football · resolved market
Spread: Vanderbilt (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x150b0443a43ccd6cc9630b77f70016875ceb4454971def3d5b0bb691c82e5f27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vanderbiltof Vanderbilt, Missouri
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Vanderbilt | 49c | 25,126$12,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,704.52 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Missouri | 53c | 12,659$6,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,769.42 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Missouri | 55c | 6,981$3,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,848.94 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Missouri | 53c | 4,303$2,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,262.56 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Vanderbilt | 46c | 3,500$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.99 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Missouri | 40c | 1,813$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.27 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…b76cbacked Missouri | 45c | 1,499$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.62 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Missouri | 53c | 1,273$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.58 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Missouri | 54c | 667$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.18 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Missouri | 54c | 459.73$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.25 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Missouri | 53c | 299.28$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.62 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Missouri | 54c | 182.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Missouri | 53c | 134.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…2c5abacked Missouri | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…cb5cbacked Missouri | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…9490backed Missouri | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc72c…ef9fbacked Missouri | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Missouri | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked Missouri | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Vanderbilt | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vanderbilt (-3.5)this page
- Missouri vs. VanderbiltVanderbilt won
- Missouri vs. Vanderbilt: O/U 53.5Under won
- O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Vanderbilt (-2.5)Vanderbilt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.