College Football · resolved market
Spread: Vanderbilt (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x102240984f5ac0248fa02eefac087e6a18dabb268b22b69145e6176763a14796
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vanderbiltof Vanderbilt, Missouri
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Missouri | 46c | 5,500$2,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,529.99 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Vanderbilt | 56c | 5,030$2,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,216 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Missouri | 44c | 3,663$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.73 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Vanderbilt | 53c | 2,422$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.24 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Missouri | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Vanderbilt | 53c | 2,093$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.71 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Vanderbilt | 56c | 1,750$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Vanderbilt | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Missouri | 44c | 750$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Missouri | 47c | 535$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.45 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Vanderbilt | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Missouri | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Vanderbilt | 53c | 249.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.49 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Vanderbilt | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Missouri | 49c | 130.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Missouri | 46c | 95.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Missouri | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Missouri | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Vanderbilt | 54c | 73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Vanderbilt | 54c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Vanderbilt | 54c | 28.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…2103backed Vanderbilt | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Missouri | 46c | 27.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vanderbilt (-2.5)this page
- Missouri vs. VanderbiltVanderbilt won
- Missouri vs. Vanderbilt: O/U 53.5Under won
- O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Vanderbilt (-3.5)Vanderbilt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.