TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Missouri vs. Vanderbilt

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vanderbiltof Missouri, Vanderbilt
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,315,402
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,339,934

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,315,402 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Missouri43c1,520,571$657,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657,269.0312549.6%62 W · 63 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Vanderbilt56c572,945$320,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252,513.873842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Vanderbilt61c164,857$100,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,857.122958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Vanderbilt57c125,000$71,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,7506547.7%31 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Missouri36c98,391$35,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,543.9668440.8%279 W · 405 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Vanderbilt58c90,622$52,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,167.975440.7%22 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Vanderbilt57c78,839$45,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,605.2516635.5%59 W · 107 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Vanderbilt59c70,206$41,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,798.1732745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64df…6facbacked Vanderbilt63c44,553$27,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,665.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Vanderbilt57c42,000$23,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,0609750.5%49 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Vanderbilt57c40,000$23,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,0007342.5%31 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8012…020fbacked Missouri41c39,752$16,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,300.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…b9febacked Vanderbilt59c39,722$23,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,222.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Vanderbilt64c30,800$19,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,951.5240541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Vanderbilt58c30,000$17,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,6002035%7 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Missouri41c27,900$11,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,424.2693548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Vanderbilt61c24,804$15,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,581.7285947.7%410 W · 449 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Vanderbilt58c24,000$13,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,08011653.4%62 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Vanderbilt55c22,853$12,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,28415451.9%80 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Vanderbilt57c20,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,60015745.2%71 W · 86 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Missouri42c17,789$7,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,394.9786243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Vanderbilt57c15,000$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,4506832.4%22 W · 46 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Vanderbilt56c14,894$8,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,513.314743.5%64 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Vanderbilt58c14,837$8,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,231.3830949.5%153 W · 156 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Missouri41c10,917$4,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,475.895141.2%21 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Vanderbilt58c10,906$6,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,591.7464841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Missouri43c10,000$4,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,254.9539954.1%216 W · 183 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Vanderbilt55c8,879$4,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,995.7326147.9%125 W · 136 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Vanderbilt59c8,475$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,474.5819362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Vanderbilt57c8,000$4,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4401546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Vanderbilt58c7,500$4,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1507944.3%35 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed Vanderbilt56c7,027$3,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,101.94977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Vanderbilt57c7,000$3,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,01052641.8%220 W · 306 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf7…836abacked Missouri43c6,591$2,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,817.431250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Vanderbilt55c6,369$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,869.441040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Vanderbilt58c5,788$3,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,430.9681847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Vanderbilt57c5,520$3,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,373.620450.5%103 W · 101 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Missouri47c5,421$2,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,542.043438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ef…5232backed Missouri47c5,077$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x998a…34a2backed Vanderbilt76c4,707$3,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.84425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Vanderbilt59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64038450.5%194 W · 190 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Vanderbilt57c3,784$2,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,611.5949253.5%263 W · 229 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Missouri39c3,600$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40725629.3%75 W · 181 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Missouri6c3,476$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.5926750.9%136 W · 131 L+21.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed32…20d6backed Vanderbilt59c3,010$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.22650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Missouri19c2,923$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54420039.5%79 W · 121 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Vanderbilt58c2,796$1,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.32,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Vanderbilt58c2,250$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94334529.9%103 W · 242 L-21.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Missouri31c2,243$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.857929.1%23 W · 56 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-41.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Vanderbilt73c2,200$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59263243.7%276 W · 356 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c51…af7ebacked Vanderbilt58c2,150$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90311844.1%52 W · 66 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3461…4629backed Missouri36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick50cpaid-78.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Vanderbilt58c1,724$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.0829055.2%160 W · 130 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f40…bd86backed Vanderbilt58c1,700$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.12119%4 W · 17 L-4.6wins-0.22per pick41cpaid-63.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Vanderbilt61c1,639$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.343053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Vanderbilt58c1,605$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.950358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb0…2fd8backed Vanderbilt76c1,582$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.74450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Missouri38c1,539$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.4827648.9%135 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Missouri42c1,500$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.5113452.2%70 W · 64 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9621…b76cbacked Missouri33c1,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+94.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54a3…1c90backed Vanderbilt55c1,497$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.82966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+86%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Vanderbilt57c1,440$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.215252.6%80 W · 72 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Vanderbilt58c1,345$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.94959.2%29 W · 20 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Vanderbilt58c1,190$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.6611142.3%47 W · 64 L-10.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Vanderbilt59c1,186$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.4412042.5%51 W · 69 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Vanderbilt57c1,175$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.257448.6%36 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Missouri42c1,067$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4485446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fcb…08fbbacked Vanderbilt61c1,058$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.032060%12 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+12.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfe4…5c4fbacked Missouri41c1,023$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.431020%2 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-58.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Vanderbilt60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4009053.3%48 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde91…f20abacked Vanderbilt57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4306440.6%26 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xedae…584fbacked Missouri39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3905856.9%33 W · 25 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+36.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3e08…9726backed Vanderbilt58c987.6$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+50.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Missouri48c937.53$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.2240244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Vanderbilt58c900.36$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.1575651.9%392 W · 364 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8480…293ebacked Missouri41c900$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3694961.2%30 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked Missouri40c858$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.3617954.2%97 W · 82 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Missouri23c815.38$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.2123751.1%121 W · 116 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e3…cda8backed Vanderbilt61c814.94$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+43.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0749…7587backed Missouri38c810.88$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Vanderbilt61c799.98$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Vanderbilt58c779.62$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.235556.4%31 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Vanderbilt58c774$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.084045%18 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Missouri38c770.8$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.9455350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…5696backed Vanderbilt55c770.62$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.78650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed Missouri42c710$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Vanderbilt58c700$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2919947.5%47 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64ec…af87backed Missouri42c678$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.76520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-56.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc24…df47backed Vanderbilt59c677.97$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.97683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+83.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed Missouri41c677$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.571947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Vanderbilt56c649$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.5634250.3%172 W · 170 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Vanderbilt62c625.26$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.65244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Missouri35c550$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010346.6%48 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a2…1aabbacked Missouri14c548.29$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.761330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Vanderbilt55c547.86$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Missouri39c542.82$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.7762843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ee…dd42backed Missouri38c523.68$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1992433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8189…6e97backed Vanderbilt59c508.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.473237.5%12 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db6…da81backed Vanderbilt59c504.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.552867.9%19 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+85.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Vanderbilt58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21011149.5%55 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.