NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1e601e8f484cc430c2771ec71cc9148b3198c78585dfba6d5a4c672c587a802

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Knicksof Knicks, Raptors
Resolved: Nov 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $121,718
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $122,132

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,718 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Knicks	49c	76,369$37,686 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38,682.55	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Raptors	51c	69,990$35,536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35,535.98	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Knicks	49c	16,653$8,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,413.41	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5664…4843backed Raptors	50c	6,000$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Raptors	46c	6,000$2,760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,759.99	140	52.1%73 W · 67 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Knicks	54c	4,611$2,490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,120.95	363	51.2%186 W · 177 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc96…8a0bbacked Raptors	49c	4,200$2,058 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,058	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf88d…796dbacked Knicks	51c	4,200$2,142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,058	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Raptors	51c	4,143$2,113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,112.93	480	54.2%260 W · 220 L	+14.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Raptors	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	154	61.7%95 W · 59 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Knicks	51c	4,000$2,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,960	155	45.8%71 W · 84 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09c6…4cb8backed Raptors	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Raptors	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks	53c	2,124$1,127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$997.09	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb50d…81debacked Raptors	49c	1,943$952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$952	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Knicks	53c	1,868$990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$878.18	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98b5…b6bebacked Knicks	51c	1,824$930 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$893.53	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors	49c	1,747$856 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$856.09	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Raptors	49c	1,632$799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$799.28	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Raptors	46c	1,393$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640.78	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1255…fa6fbacked Raptors	47c	1,200$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Raptors	51c	1,000$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Raptors	49c	1,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Knicks	54c	977.15$528 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$449.49	403	50.1%202 W · 201 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Raptors	47c	599.99$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.99	528	44.7%236 W · 292 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Raptors	51c	588$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.88	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Knicks	48c	499.99$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.99	841	50.3%423 W · 418 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks	50c	445.99$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.07	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Knicks	49c	419.99$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.2	406	48%195 W · 211 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Knicks	52c	384.62$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.62	235	50.2%118 W · 117 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdab0…2fe9backed Knicks	54c	370.37$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.37	44	59.1%26 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Raptors	49c	294$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.06	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd8d…a108backed Raptors	52c	287.66$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Raptors	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	631	42%265 W · 366 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Raptors	46c	205$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.35	288	38.2%110 W · 178 L	-18.2wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6fe…6a33backed Raptors	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	80	45%36 W · 44 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Knicks	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	237	48.1%114 W · 123 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Raptors	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aba…0831backed Raptors	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	185	58.4%108 W · 77 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Knicks	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	239	48.5%116 W · 123 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b7d4backed Knicks	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Raptors	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1be0…dc27backed Raptors	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	158	53.8%85 W · 73 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Raptors	47c	148.94$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	84	39.3%33 W · 51 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Raptors	49c	137$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.09	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Raptors	49c	129.95$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.68	824	40.4%333 W · 491 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Raptors	47c	102$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.94	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec5…9fe0backed Raptors	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	168	53%89 W · 79 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b20…7c67backed Raptors	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	195	52.8%103 W · 92 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09e3…cf81backed Raptors	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	189	55%104 W · 85 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked Knicks	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	165	52.7%87 W · 78 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed Raptors	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…fd21backed Raptors	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	140	36.4%51 W · 89 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Raptors	50c	99.84$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.88	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x370b…5009backed Raptors	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	61cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca47…3ef4backed Knicks	54c	92.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.53	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Raptors	49c	85.53$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.91	92	20.7%19 W · 73 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Raptors	50c	79.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Raptors	46c	66$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.36	93	54.8%51 W · 42 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7897…0842backed Raptors	50c	62$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x895d…4970backed Raptors	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	126	46.8%59 W · 67 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72f9…629abacked Raptors	47c	56$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.32	71	46.5%33 W · 38 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Raptors	47c	55$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.85	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Raptors	47c	53.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	195	48.7%95 W · 100 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd6d…c733backed Raptors	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	93	58.1%54 W · 39 L	+7.6wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd95…52fbbacked Knicks	51c	49.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.02	139	38.8%54 W · 85 L	-14.7wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Raptors	47c	48.3$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Raptors	49c	47.47$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.26	608	34.4%209 W · 399 L	+8.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc75…88acbacked Raptors	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf581…0892backed Knicks	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	74	44.6%33 W · 41 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5a5…fb44backed Raptors	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	125	61.6%77 W · 48 L	+4.4wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x075a…8d34backed Raptors	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	128	58.6%75 W · 53 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Raptors	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	484	51.2%248 W · 236 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Knicks	50c	35$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	624	50%312 W · 312 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1365…97dfbacked Raptors	51c	33.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	162	53.1%86 W · 76 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Knicks	51c	33.13$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.23	627	44.5%279 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa3…538dbacked Raptors	47c	31.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28fb…9490backed Raptors	49c	30.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-3.8wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6548…7337backed Raptors	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	90	47.8%43 W · 47 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20c7…f12fbacked Raptors	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	75	46.7%35 W · 40 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9f2…0c24backed Knicks	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	68cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5256…24a5backed Knicks	50c	25.46$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.73	52	46.2%24 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Raptors	49c	21.43$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	203	56.7%115 W · 88 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Raptors	47c	21.3$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	256	42.2%108 W · 148 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d1…4efbbacked Knicks	50c	21.06$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.53	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+64.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a51…ef48backed Raptors	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdc7…31c0backed Knicks	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	87	46%40 W · 47 L	-5.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event