NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f3c542e218f5a7fc8eac6e1f800f03f91ca18d0e44d7566352eee3ef00c1330
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 4,313$2,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,070 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…e3ecbacked Under | 49c | 3,900$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…00f6backed Over | 51c | 3,900$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Under | 56c | 3,264$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.54 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 53c | 2,222$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.34 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 1,873$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.1 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7209…b3c1backed Over | 48c | 1,621$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 44c | 1,376$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.93 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 1,029$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.43 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…a9e6backed Over | 49c | 1,019$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.51 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 52c | 729.37$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.1 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 30c | 665.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.12 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…9dcabacked Over | 51c | 480$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…e5b3backed Under | 49c | 480$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.8 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 418.72$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2785…2dddbacked Under | 71c | 300.01$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +70%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 27c | 296.17$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 48c | 217.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Under | 53c | 200$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 169.57$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 53c | 168$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…9ad0backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 53c | 95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Over | 47c | 94.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 86.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…922ebacked Over | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -57%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…6135backed Under | 55c | 81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Over | 32c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…1ecbbacked Over | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7691…e41abacked Over | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f1…0da2backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5this page
- Raptors vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.