NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e49e935b9272ae4900b6de1900faf4c1ed28d96fb288f917c5d712a61bc02ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Knicks | 54c | 8,055$4,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,695.03 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 45c | 4,348$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 46c | 2,222$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.34 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…701fbacked Knicks | 56c | 2,211$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Raptors | 46c | 1,728$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.88 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Knicks | 55c | 1,127$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.73 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 46c | 695$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.7 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Raptors | 46c | 690.66$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.8 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Raptors | 46c | 536.6$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.15 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Raptors | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Raptors | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Knicks | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Raptors | 44c | 199.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Raptors | 46c | 197.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Raptors | 45c | 176.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Knicks | 57c | 162.04$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raptors | 46c | 151$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f2…5648backed Raptors | 45c | 104$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Knicks | 56c | 97.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Knicks | 55c | 75.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Raptors | 46c | 65.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 468 | 47.4%222 W · 246 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Raptors | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Raptors | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5aa…1ebabacked Knicks | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Knicks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Raptors | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)this page
- Raptors vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Knicks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.