NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-8.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf526a0854d91f4473e49a7218f18d0e78ffc26b6a5f417c0eb94b6a6e5f49723

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Knicksof Knicks, Raptors
Resolved: Nov 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $490,481
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $488,687

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $490,481 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc2e7…be51backed Knicks	52c	392,657$205,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187,656.79	100	49%49 W · 51 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Raptors	49c	90,903$44,542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44,542.43	593	47%279 W · 314 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Raptors	48c	90,000$43,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43,200	193	51.3%99 W · 94 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors	48c	83,900$40,613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40,612.93	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Raptors	46c	60,972$28,047 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28,047.05	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Raptors	49c	52,416$25,884 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,883.96	140	52.1%73 W · 67 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Raptors	47c	50,000$23,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23,500	148	56.1%83 W · 65 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Raptors	47c	29,842$14,025 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,025.09	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Raptors	49c	8,109$3,973 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,973.13	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Raptors	52c	5,019$2,606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,606.45	104	51%53 W · 51 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors	49c	3,378$1,655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,655.05	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Raptors	48c	2,547$1,231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,231.2	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors	47c	1,807$853 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$853.08	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raptors	47c	1,170$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.9	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Knicks	49c	505.24$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.67	356	51.1%182 W · 174 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Raptors	52c	501.62$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	417	42%175 W · 242 L	-16.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks	48c	449.62$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.8	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors	49c	424$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.76	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06eb…1a5fbacked Raptors	52c	384.62$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	101	67.3%68 W · 33 L	+5.1wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7720…da92backed Raptors	52c	333.79$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.57	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x744b…848ebacked Raptors	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	145	52.4%76 W · 69 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1009…9ad0backed Raptors	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Raptors	47c	200$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Raptors	51c	195.98$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.95	354	38.1%135 W · 219 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a25…3598backed Raptors	52c	189.65$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.62	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Raptors	49c	111.92$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…fd21backed Raptors	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	140	36.4%51 W · 89 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Raptors	53c	90.57$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	136	44.9%61 W · 75 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x897d…90c9backed Knicks	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	165	59.4%98 W · 67 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Raptors	51c	75$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.25	183	57.4%105 W · 78 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Raptors	52c	58.46$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	244	52.5%128 W · 116 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Raptors	52c	57.79$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Raptors	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	125	50.4%63 W · 62 L	-7.6wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Knicks	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d4e…d786backed Knicks	52c	48.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.08	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Raptors	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	69.2%27 W · 12 L	+5.6wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9365…1389backed Raptors	50c	38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-19%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Knicks	47c	28.3$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ec1…f195backed Raptors	51c	22.86$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-8.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event