Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Altcoin market cap dip to $160B by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf27a6027e46d811d5d2152e2d42603d0e0018cb8d25b8c8ab90e45d040c4785f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e86…29abbacked Yes | 16c | 5,979$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 79c | 3,286$2,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54fa…0fbcbacked Yes | 15c | 2,300$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.13 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 1,200$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed No | 77c | 986.53$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 75c | 820$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.26 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…0752backed Yes | 8c | 792.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 680.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 666.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 24c | 629.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.2 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…8652backed Yes | 19c | 599.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96fe…2b6dbacked Yes | 23c | 503.16$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 7c | 492.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…9794backed Yes | 26c | 459.29$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 11c | 406.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…04c5backed Yes | 20c | 300.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked No | 79c | 293.47$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 62c | 252.96$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 24c | 243.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 239.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…9490backed No | 79c | 190.45$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb564…0a71backed Yes | 17c | 176.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 167$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Yes | 23c | 149.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf493…f4f6backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 115.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb6…8d69backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 33c | 99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba4…7592backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…e0aabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Yes | 25c | 40.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb2…deddbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5355…fae9backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.