Us Midterms · resolved market
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by November 4, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x596a753024fb1282df5df133e49bdd82ab229be1193c62930cd52dae9adb1262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 72c | 1,051$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 799.99$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 2c | 737.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb240…1fe1backed No | 28c | 723.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 66c | 676$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.73 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 67c | 640.04$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.47 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 25c | 600.89$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 69c | 589.53$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.46 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 29c | 514.62$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce78…236abacked No | 25c | 471.48$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…d42fbacked Yes | 72c | 463.8$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…594ebacked No | 40c | 373.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 69c | 325.86$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 21c | 292.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked No | 37c | 284$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 66c | 210.24$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1224…9897backed No | 42c | 206.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…a79abacked No | 26c | 194.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…3e15backed No | 25c | 155.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 26c | 131.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…09bfbacked Yes | 60c | 130$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f76…e72bbacked Yes | 77c | 129.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe701…942ebacked Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 31c | 106.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…1a7abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…5efbbacked No | 30c | 98.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 39c | 91.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…9969backed No | 24c | 83.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5621…572bbacked No | 34c | 76.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 59c | 74.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…9490backed No | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd99…aea7backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 39c | 57.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda45…d95bbacked Yes | 67c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked No | 40c | 50.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3769…600fbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe409…aa26backed No | 41c | 48.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 72c | 47.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 25c | 44.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 78c | 40.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…190cbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…b9dcbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…d4debacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe68…f031backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…90afbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726d…d81bbacked Yes | 75c | 18.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f9…15eebacked Yes | 64c | 16.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0783…4ac7backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by November 4, 2025?this page
- Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by November 5, 2025?Yes won
- Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by November 7, 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.