AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b8d41b670c375a4dd9ec2bede570cbc5a94e49e9837a16d9d1b5f2286466588
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed No | 34c | 3,070$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed No | 65c | 2,200$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 38c | 2,099$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.23 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…0063backed No | 32c | 1,644$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…dfefbacked No | 61c | 1,151$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…028fbacked Yes | 65c | 1,089$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 14c | 1,047$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.07 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 40c | 989.09$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.33 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 17c | 979.76$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.58 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 47c | 910.26$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 18c | 777.17$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.36 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 755.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 22c | 693.01$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.8 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 55c | 617.16$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.72 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…91b0backed No | 56c | 609.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed No | 45c | 579.08$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.54 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 6c | 566.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 34c | 549.12$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.36 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…2bdcbacked Yes | 76c | 524.82$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 48c | 479.57$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.51 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 71c | 476.96$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.23 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 47c | 421.74$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +87%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 31c | 397.49$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.88 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 66c | 350$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 78c | 301.7$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…c664backed No | 34c | 291.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 34c | 254.35$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 254.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 249.69$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…9518backed Yes | 72c | 243.5$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 9c | 217.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958e…f76abacked Yes | 78c | 216.81$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a9…1f13backed Yes | 72c | 206.16$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…a21fbacked Yes | 67c | 204.06$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed Yes | 73c | 199.92$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 35c | 199.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…9897backed No | 73c | 165.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…2a96backed No | 41c | 163.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked Yes | 64c | 162.93$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…648ebacked No | 8c | 162.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…7eecbacked No | 69c | 147$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…bea0backed No | 68c | 145$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 74c | 123.14$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 75cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 8c | 118.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed Yes | 68c | 109$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 57c | 107.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 67c | 98.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 23c | 86.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce12…0e76backed Yes | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed No | 29c | 74.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 75c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…d8eebacked Yes | 73c | 69.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7698…9c54backed Yes | 69c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff6…1855backed Yes | 73c | 68.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…c8c2backed Yes | 71c | 60.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…2aaebacked No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ed…f4d8backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 29c | 58.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 26c | 58.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9e…4480backed Yes | 79c | 55.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…32a0backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…31e3backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadee…20aabacked Yes | 74c | 40.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…1c6cbacked Yes | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…ec49backed Yes | 66c | 37.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…a2fdbacked Yes | 78c | 37.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d7…8b78backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf97…9f00backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7266…5965backed Yes | 68c | 29.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…28e0backed Yes | 49c | 29.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…9490backed Yes | 68c | 29.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…dc06backed Yes | 63c | 29.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddf…7879backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…3cb1backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…9753backed Yes | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…e955backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…a1bfbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…0acbbacked Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked No | 67c | 23.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf208…5eefbacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1133…9772backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…4476backed Yes | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…ee17backed Yes | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa94…b15ebacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9220…4dd9backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…908ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…c8d3backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…65e8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0983…fa97backed Yes | 68c | 18.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…86cfbacked Yes | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?this page
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?No won
- Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.