La Liga · resolved market
Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8598a53b2e52bc758db2c833d57a0f7404b84b119c55eb7a832053a994d5118e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 72c | 18,824$13,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,553.28 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 32c | 18,716$5,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,783.8 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 29c | 2,500$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked No | 71c | 1,730$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.7 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 55c | 896.75$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.24 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 884.02$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.03 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked No | 71c | 810$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.1 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 28c | 800$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…a6a3backed Yes | 58c | 687.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.75 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 30c | 440$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 146 | 21.9%32 W · 114 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed No | 70c | 416.29$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 28c | 358.34$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.76 | 140 | 67.1%94 W · 46 L | +17.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 46c | 322.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.92 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 31c | 300$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.97 | 202 | 55%111 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 28c | 299.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.99 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 28c | 253.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.55 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 27c | 222.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.78 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 26c | 205.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 65c | 187.35$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.27 | 256 | 48.4%124 W · 132 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Yes | 53c | 179$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 12c | 165.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 70c | 143.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 32c | 121$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 68c | 110.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Yes | 31c | 60.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…cd54backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x897b…151ebacked Yes | 31c | 38.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 29c | 35.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 158 | 51.3%81 W · 77 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 70c | 26.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 72c | 17.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will Alaves vs. Sevilla end in a draw?No won
- Will Alaves win on 2025-09-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.