La Liga · resolved market
Will Alaves win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x399b344369c6128a38cb0f21dfecd026c1336d376b3dc090d5594a984d390f79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 72c | 2,313$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.24 | 140 | 67.1%94 W · 46 L | +17.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 30c | 1,564$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.7 | 502 | 43.4%218 W · 284 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 79c | 1,074$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.2 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 1,030$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.06 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 65c | 770.78$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 59c | 637$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.17 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 41c | 505$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.45 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 39c | 499.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421d…320abacked No | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 37c | 385.73$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.72 | 256 | 48.4%124 W · 132 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Yes | 40c | 363$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed No | 59c | 293$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 61c | 259.65$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 40c | 252.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +8.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 39c | 215.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 60c | 212.5$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed Yes | 38c | 193.93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 39c | 141.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 59c | 115.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 74c | 115$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 28c | 106.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 40c | 103$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 39c | 99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 158 | 51.3%81 W · 77 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 39c | 81.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…998ebacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 37c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 60c | 40.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…f9b2backed Yes | 39c | 36.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5751…cb3abacked Yes | 40c | 32.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…7266backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 60c | 20.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alaves win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will Alaves vs. Sevilla end in a draw?No won
- Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.