La Liga · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x200341e97a9870d6f6a10b5f21f6a2a2da5ab067cde6d888d266df3230d376d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 45c | 10,794$4,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,836.57 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 55c | 3,164$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.52 | 256 | 48.4%124 W · 132 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked No | 53c | 2,667$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.48 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 48c | 1,990$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.31 | 400 | 33.5%134 W · 266 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 48c | 1,778$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.44 | 502 | 43.4%218 W · 284 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 44c | 1,015$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.48 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…a6a3backed Yes | 45c | 884.5$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Yes | 46c | 687.57$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.28 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 22c | 601.15$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.75 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 46c | 585.65$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.35 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 52c | 533.01$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 54c | 495.99$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.16 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 53c | 400$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf322…1cf1backed Yes | 45c | 377.96$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed No | 55c | 356.13$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.26 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 56c | 280$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 57c | 252.94$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.94 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2db…31cabacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 50c | 209.79$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 45c | 130.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff8…3011backed Yes | 48c | 121.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 45c | 119.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 112 | 61.6%69 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 17c | 116.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…4b1ebacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed No | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x007a…c3abbacked Yes | 44c | 86.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 51c | 81.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 57c | 71.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed No | 58c | 64.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 47c | 57.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 532 | 42.3%225 W · 307 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…94b2backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ef…ba16backed No | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 78c | 44.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 67c | 35.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…8084backed Yes | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 144 | 62.5%90 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 56c | 25.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 290 | 53.4%155 W · 135 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 53c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-21?this page
- Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-09-21?No won
- Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Celta Vigo end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.