La Liga · resolved market
Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-09-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46d0fd960a91a5697e86a1e49e7971eced40b21b7487bdb3f8afd92653c93f6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 27c | 4,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 241 | 47.7%115 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 72c | 3,277$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.56 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 28c | 2,500$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 73c | 1,665$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.36 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 1,454$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.96 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 26c | 1,217$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.72 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…466dbacked Yes | 13c | 757.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ad…9d38backed Yes | 11c | 600$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 570.93$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.1 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…30abbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 33c | 269$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 27c | 237.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 74c | 212.22$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed Yes | 26c | 212.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 43c | 206.63$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed No | 73c | 203.2$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 400 | 33.5%134 W · 266 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 77c | 180.52$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 147 | 59.2%87 W · 60 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 28c | 154$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5df…fed4backed Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 68c | 110.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 79c | 103$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa9…7a30backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 72c | 77.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 23c | 77.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 256 | 48.4%124 W · 132 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 50c | 71.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 69.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 27c | 38.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 144 | 62.5%90 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-09-21?this page
- Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Celta Vigo end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.