Champions League · resolved market
Will Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd28231a95350f4bf772edd72aa1843a327e37c441c3bcc795eecb2873739f3ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8565…7d58backed Yes | 21c | 5,240$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 80c | 4,987$3,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.4 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2846…e185backed Yes | 21c | 4,770$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b80…ad84backed No | 79c | 3,799$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…fbd0backed No | 79c | 3,670$2,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 18c | 2,901$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.56 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…15b6backed No | 79c | 2,532$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 36c | 2,462$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.05 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 28c | 1,932$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.26 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…35d1backed Yes | 66c | 1,542$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 74c | 1,488$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.4 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 18c | 1,200$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 79c | 1,025$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.25 | 298 | 46.3%138 W · 160 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked No | 79c | 833$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.93 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 20c | 786.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.13 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 42c | 541.09$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.78 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…1230backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 17c | 461$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb7…5984backed Yes | 22c | 450$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…0434backed Yes | 74c | 390.22$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Yes | 68c | 367.65$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 10c | 309.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 18c | 245.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…a6a3backed Yes | 22c | 236.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 7c | 229$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7122…4e23backed Yes | 17c | 211.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e9…d891backed Yes | 19c | 178.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 76c | 176.06$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed No | 78c | 167.73$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 78c | 152$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed No | 15c | 151.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Yes | 67c | 149.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 9c | 139.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 20c | 137.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 79c | 133.33$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Yes | 18c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f6…79d2backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a93…0560backed Yes | 73c | 103.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…e978backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 21c | 99.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 36c | 94.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +8.6wins | +0.25per pick | 33cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…a26ebacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…fca1backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…db5dbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 64c | 79.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked No | 79c | 55.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 21c | 53.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9543…66e9backed Yes | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44f…4d77backed Yes | 67c | 42.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 70c | 41.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked No | 79c | 38.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c5…94cfbacked Yes | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f17…8cc4backed No | 44c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +71%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc92…7505backed Yes | 75c | 23.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 221 | 47.5%105 W · 116 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw?this page
- Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-17?No won
- Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.