Champions League · resolved market
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a0a6f3fda470bd729e7b87e7af7c987027855748fa9aeb30ae4e85ce5babb7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $246,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 14c | 100,000$14,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,000 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 0c | 26,996$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.91 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 14c | 20,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 17c | 20,000$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 13c | 5,863$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.93 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 14c | 5,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d26…d30cbacked Yes | 14c | 5,000$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…c16abacked Yes | 15c | 4,656$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 14c | 3,167$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.38 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 15c | 3,050$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.5 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 15c | 2,403$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.48 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,391$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.75 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Yes | 9c | 1,611$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 7c | 1,583$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.28 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 254 | 50%127 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 15c | 1,500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…0043backed Yes | 15c | 1,022$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 14c | 857.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 129 | 21.7%28 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 3c | 746.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 4c | 604.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 16c | 569.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a54…42f1backed Yes | 15c | 524.01$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe799…137ebacked Yes | 4c | 449.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 15c | 440$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Yes | 5c | 439.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 4c | 375$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b14…d18cbacked Yes | 10c | 339.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93e9…d891backed Yes | 9c | 292.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Yes | 16c | 275.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afb…942cbacked Yes | 10c | 255.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 13c | 227.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 14c | 195.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda5…840dbacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…c40fbacked Yes | 13c | 174.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658f…f68bbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…5947backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…345abacked Yes | 15c | 165$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 15c | 160.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 14c | 158$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 129 | 38%49 W · 80 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…8b3abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9be…27bcbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…58bcbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…316ebacked Yes | 14c | 129.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Yes | 16c | 122.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 113 | 35.4%40 W · 73 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 14c | 100.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 107 | 17.8%19 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…35d1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…e978backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…daf8backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…5e21backed Yes | 15c | 69.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…527dbacked Yes | 15c | 66.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-17?this page
- Will Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw?No won
- Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.