La Liga · resolved market
Will Valencia win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ed9589a2016d53604f1f791f70551176727ab2bd7b7003a320cfa226acd12e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,599.99 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 73c | 4,114$3,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,002.13 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 71c | 1,587$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.8 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 42c | 1,419$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.57 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed No | 71c | 1,315$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 66cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 29c | 1,084$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.48 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 53c | 904$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.07 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…a6a3backed Yes | 31c | 509.93$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.93 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 80c | 448.04$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.43 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5420…a717backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 37c | 419.9$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.58 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 72c | 400$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 63c | 374.39$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.2 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 38c | 257.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.65 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 15c | 225$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 400 | 33.5%134 W · 266 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 209.89$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.97 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 72c | 159.86$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.1 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 27c | 136.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…9fecbacked Yes | 39c | 128.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 71c | 84.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…3546backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x642f…31fcbacked Yes | 22c | 56.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…b72ebacked Yes | 28c | 56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d22…3aabbacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…f9b2backed Yes | 28c | 38.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 69c | 37.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c3…4672backed Yes | 31c | 35.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +225.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 72c | 34.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…737cbacked Yes | 51c | 23.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked No | 56c | 21.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 71c | 17.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 68c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Valencia win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-20?No won
- Will Valencia vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.