Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: PRX vs Team Heretics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50cbce55fea7bbf23fcc53834e8aaeb03489b9e53cab2f5ad09b447de052345a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PRXof PRX, Team Heretics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $266,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $301,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked Team Heretics | 39c | 124,294$48,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,203.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked PRX | 65c | 57,356$37,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,803.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed PRX | 61c | 30,000$18,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,700 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed PRX | 61c | 22,222$13,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,666.58 | 339 | 42.2%143 W · 196 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Team Heretics | 38c | 22,172$8,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,382.97 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed PRX | 62c | 16,086$9,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,185.67 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +11.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Team Heretics | 18c | 13,069$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Team Heretics | 34c | 11,053$3,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,704.06 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Team Heretics | 14c | 9,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Heretics | 24c | 6,419$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.82 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed PRX | 61c | 6,341$3,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,473.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed PRX | 64c | 6,118$3,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,232.34 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed PRX | 61c | 4,926$3,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Team Heretics | 24c | 2,665$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 173 | 32.4%56 W · 117 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed PRX | 63c | 2,431$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.33per pick | 56cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked PRX | 61c | 2,315$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.55 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed PRX | 61c | 2,222$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed PRX | 62c | 2,210$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.63 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb99…5d0fbacked PRX | 79c | 1,892$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…602cbacked PRX | 68c | 1,607$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed PRX | 74c | 1,554$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Team Heretics | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed PRX | 61c | 1,453$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.8 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…6f5cbacked PRX | 60c | 1,446$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed PRX | 62c | 1,348$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.24 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed PRX | 62c | 1,300$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked PRX | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Team Heretics | 26c | 809.18$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.77 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…8cd4backed PRX | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed PRX | 63c | 763.32$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.43 | 229 | 55%126 W · 103 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed PRX | 70c | 750$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed PRX | 62c | 645.16$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked PRX | 64c | 564$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.04 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed PRX | 63c | 534.92$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked PRX | 62c | 500$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed PRX | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…29edbacked Team Heretics | 8c | 448.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…494fbacked PRX | 73c | 412.59$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Team Heretics | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 621 | 56.4%350 W · 271 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e18…3082backed PRX | 62c | 399.96$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed PRX | 60c | 382.58$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…51edbacked PRX | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Team Heretics | 37c | 350$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed PRX | 63c | 330$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…955fbacked PRX | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 29cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed PRX | 72c | 280.89$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…62a7backed Team Heretics | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…3e14backed Team Heretics | 46c | 263$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed PRX | 62c | 225.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.81 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed PRX | 62c | 203.85$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked PRX | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Team Heretics | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked PRX | 51c | 195.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd773…549ebacked PRX | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671f…af9cbacked PRX | 60c | 164.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked PRX | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked PRX | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 339 | 47.8%162 W · 177 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed PRX | 56c | 134.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Team Heretics | 38c | 108$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed PRX | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…a6a3backed Team Heretics | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…0b75backed PRX | 57c | 92.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed PRX | 80c | 86.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…8e6bbacked PRX | 62c | 66.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…4485backed Team Heretics | 30c | 63.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…cafcbacked Team Heretics | 40c | 61.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…39aabacked PRX | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…fdeebacked Team Heretics | 19c | 53.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed PRX | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed PRX | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Team Heretics | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 253 | 47%119 W · 134 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed PRX | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807a…2047backed PRX | 64c | 46.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked PRX | 28c | 46.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4311…d3e8backed PRX | 55c | 36.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c1…fd4fbacked PRX | 63c | 33.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a71…f9c9backed PRX | 62c | 32.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed PRX | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed PRX | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddf…1b96backed Team Heretics | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a6…f55fbacked PRX | 63c | 24.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a6…0107backed PRX | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6d…ed98backed PRX | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.