La Liga · resolved market

Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-23?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x076c969534642cc4a72aac9658cf1bffd4d1a669684e4c02732e9ba43531045f

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 23, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $50,213
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,213 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in La Liga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3cda…6e17backed No	71c	11,037$7,847 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,189.38	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Yes	27c	6,417$1,727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,727.03	146	47.9%70 W · 76 L	+11.6wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes	29c	5,801$1,682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,682.41	241	47.7%115 W · 126 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x410b…5c3cbacked Yes	29c	3,414$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No	72c	3,000$2,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$840	130	46.2%60 W · 70 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes	27c	2,402$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.54	4,753	47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L	-21.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69bb…fcb2backed No	73c	2,119$1,547 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$572.46	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9875…c2aebacked Yes	1c	2,100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes	31c	2,050$636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$635.5	155	16.1%25 W · 130 L	-10.3wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9920…8f8ebacked Yes	28c	1,544$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.2	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	35cpaid	-74%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes	29c	1,472$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.86	130	45.4%59 W · 71 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No	75c	1,413$1,059 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.54	307	43.6%134 W · 173 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked No	69c	1,304$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$404.27	109	56.9%62 W · 47 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2065…48f2backed Yes	29c	1,300$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked No	71c	1,264$897 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$366.45	125	51.2%64 W · 61 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No	77c	1,256$964 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.2	3,461	43%1,489 W · 1,972 L	+31.4wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked No	80c	1,255$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.84	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf70c…72c1backed Yes	21c	1,110$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.3	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0bbd…606cbacked Yes	28c	1,086$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No	70c	1,069$748 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320.78	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed No	79c	1,034$818 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.23	122	51.6%63 W · 59 L	+10.8wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No	69c	1,000$690 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310	70	60%42 W · 28 L	+5.4wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2765…94cbbacked Yes	30c	900$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes	23c	852.37$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.09	137	28.5%39 W · 98 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Yes	30c	699.99$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa969…3501backed Yes	31c	645.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No	69c	613.68$423 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.24	94	59.6%56 W · 38 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No	70c	605.02$422 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.95	143	48.3%69 W · 74 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa468…816ebacked Yes	31c	604$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.24	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes	28c	573.13$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes	29c	484.11$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Yes	25c	437$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x761a…d9babacked No	70c	428.57$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.57	20	60%12 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes	20c	420.78$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.51	269	30.5%82 W · 187 L	-21.4wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7256…30c9backed Yes	31c	383.63$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.93	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd094…271bbacked Yes	28c	353.56$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.99	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8239…ddd7backed Yes	9c	350$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x844a…ba1abacked Yes	18c	340$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec6…47c1backed Yes	29c	339.9$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b02…393ebacked Yes	30c	333.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6006…cae5backed Yes	31c	322.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfe…4341backed Yes	31c	322.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed No	71c	300.34$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.27	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Yes	28c	300$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.54	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-4.8wins	-0.19per pick	30cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Yes	28c	300$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed No	70c	300$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	17	82.4%14 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	73cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes	30c	299.99$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	129	17.8%23 W · 106 L	-5.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked No	79c	286.81$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.23	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	-16%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes	15c	247$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.17	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes	13c	233.58$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Yes	28c	200$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed No	70c	200$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-13%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes	31c	193.55$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec0…40dabacked No	71c	190$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.18	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes	30c	182.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.9	502	43.4%218 W · 284 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2db…31cabacked Yes	28c	178.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6777…2612backed Yes	23c	165.22$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x415c…e407backed Yes	30c	157.7$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.31	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57df…0bfabacked Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes	28c	152.66$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.74	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No	70c	142.86$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.86	59	47.5%28 W · 31 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No	70c	142.86$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.86	52	59.6%31 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c3…aa7ebacked Yes	16c	128.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	55cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes	27c	127.4$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.4	242	45%109 W · 133 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bef…f80abacked Yes	30c	121.67$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa3c…a6a3backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes	31c	106.45$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	+28%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7a…45bdbacked Yes	27c	105.81$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.57	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	50	28%14 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f2e…9046backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Yes	30c	99.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes	13c	99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.98	177	44.1%78 W · 99 L	-12.4wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No	71c	84$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.36	350	54%189 W · 161 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x601d…1778backed Yes	26c	76.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-4.6wins	-0.33per pick	47cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes	31c	64.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	285	43.2%123 W · 162 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d22…3aabbacked Yes	31c	64.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85cc…4895backed Yes	31c	60$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-17%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked No	70c	60$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed No	69c	60$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.6	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.7wins	+0.17per pick	43cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae11…3e83backed Yes	29c	52.52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4591…df1bbacked No	74c	40.54$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.54	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x881a…8d6dbacked No	70c	35.71$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.71	73	57.5%42 W · 31 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes	29c	35$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	489	34.4%168 W · 321 L	+26.5wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x06e7…87c2backed No	73c	27.4$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	68cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No	71c	24.33$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.09	432	55.6%240 W · 192 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x140f…5022backed No	74c	24.32$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.32	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked No	72c	21.43$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb32b…522dbacked No	70c	17.85$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.36	34	73.5%25 W · 9 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	68cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed No	70c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.5	255	51.4%131 W · 124 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-23?this page
Will Sevilla vs. Villarreal end in a draw?No won
Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-23?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-23?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event