Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Real Betis vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0acc28cd1a18d54665e644d2a651664fcd1c0d6e1385361dd05d440ab8b0e790
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 72c | 2,469$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777.94 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 60c | 1,613$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.51 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,133$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.56 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1edcbacked Yes | 28c | 892.86$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 77c | 804.29$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.24 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…03c7backed Yes | 78c | 484.24$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…45eabacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 76c | 374.96$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.9 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 28c | 335.71$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 28c | 307.14$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.14 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 79c | 260.5$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…a6a3backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 28c | 155$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…2f32backed Yes | 39c | 131.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 27c | 114.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…7293backed Yes | 27c | 91.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 24c | 87.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 78c | 78.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 71.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…da3bbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 72c | 42.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9929…0b40backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 40cpaid | +181.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf2…76f0backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 204 | 49.5%101 W · 103 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 74c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Betis vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?this page
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-24?No won
- Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.