La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2de65a20a0ec2ba9f38574a3ba06c00e5b442e613b87265e738c4f5d0a9287e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 76c | 9,884$7,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,372.09 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 24c | 9,555$2,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,293.2 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd16a…7691backed No | 76c | 5,000$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 4,120$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.85 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 24c | 4,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 241 | 45.2%109 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 27c | 3,707$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 123 | 38.2%47 W · 76 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 18c | 2,825$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.26 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 79c | 1,565$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.6 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 72c | 1,400$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e3…21d5backed No | 74c | 1,066$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.09 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.7wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 17c | 989.09$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.87 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 14c | 983$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.62 | 140 | 67.1%94 W · 46 L | +17.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…a6a3backed No | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 74c | 566.21$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.42 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 23c | 302.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed Yes | 24c | 267.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 25c | 204$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x115c…70a5backed Yes | 25c | 200.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…6485backed Yes | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 23c | 182.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 24c | 170$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 502 | 43.4%218 W · 284 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…45eabacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 76c | 123.18$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…239abacked Yes | 25c | 120.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…9834backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 24c | 118.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…7a12backed No | 77c | 116.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f587backed No | 77c | 112.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…c715backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b14…d18cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 75c | 96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 24c | 88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 75c | 86.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 23c | 82.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 256 | 48.4%124 W · 132 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…26b1backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…8084backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa12c…15c5backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…44f3backed No | 77c | 73.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd559…ff47backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…4a7abacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 53.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 75c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…9b52backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b42…0a09backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaed…2d14backed No | 77c | 34.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-19?this page
- Will Real Betis vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.